Title

2021-based interim national population projections for Wales, 2021-2046

Last update

30 January 2024 30 January 2024

Next update

October / November 2024

Publishing organisation

Welsh Government

Source 1

2021-based interim national population projections for Wales, Office for National Statistics

Contact email

stats.popcensus@gov.wales

Designation

National Statistics

Geographical coverage

Wales

Languages covered

English only

Data licensing

You may use and re-use this data free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government License - see http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence

Keywords

Population; population projections; migration; natural change; births; deaths

General description

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces national population projections for Wales, and the other UK countries (release date: 30 January 2024). This dataset provides the Wales data from that source by sex, single year of age and each year from the base year of 2021, through the projection period to 2046.

Data collection and calculation

The 2021 population estimates have been used as the base for these national projections. The projected population is at 30 June each year. The base population estimates are based on the usually resident population. Usual residents away from home temporarily are included, but visitors are excluded. Students are counted at their term-time address. It should also be noted that the UN definition of an international migrant is used, which is people changing country of residence for a period of at least 12 months. Short-term migrants (for example, migrant workers) are not counted in the population estimates and hence are not included in the population projections.

Data for 2021 and 2022 have not been included in the cube. Users should use official mid-year population estimates for 2021 and 2022. These projections use the latest provisional estimates of international migration, which will be revised as more data becomes available, and assumptions were developed following the latest expert advice.

Frequency of publication

Every two years

Data reference periods

Data are published for the period 2021 to 2046.

Users, uses and context

See weblinks.

Rounding applied

Data are rounded independently to the nearest whole number and may not add exactly. Mean and median ages are rounded to two decimal places and are not additive.

Revisions information

These data replaced the 2020-based national population projections for Wales as the formal projections of population change.

Weblinks

National population projections: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections;
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsqmi
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2021basedinterim

Statistical quality

See weblinks.

Name

POPU5039