General description

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces national population projections for Wales, and the other UK countries. This dataset provides the Wales data from that source by gender, single year of age and each year from the base year of 2014, through the projection period to 2039. Note that the projections become increasingly uncertain the further we try to look into the future.

The national projections and the local authority projections are different for two main reasons:

1. The methodology used to produce assumptions in the local authority projections are different to those used in the national projections. Some of these are due to slightly different data sources. Also, although one set of assumptions may fit well for a national trend, using similar assumptions may not always produce feasible results for all local authority areas because of the different nature and trends between local authorities.

2. The geographical level for which the assumptions are based and applied is also important. For example, it is not appropriate to sum local rates (eg fertility) to derive a national rate, and therefore a model operating at different geographic levels (but using rates) will produce different results for the different geographic levels.

Note these figures differ from the Wales data in the local authority population projections. This is because the key aim of the local authority population projections is to produce robust local authority population projections for Wales, which reflect local trends in recent years. The main purpose of the national projections is to produce robust population projections for Wales which reflect national trends in recent years.

Data collection and calculation

Population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population, and are based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends. Projections only indicate what may happen should the recent trends continue. Projections done in this way do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies on future population levels, distribution and change. Note there are methodological differences between the 2014 national projections and the 2012 projections, see weblinks for details.

The 2014 national population estimates have been used as the base for these national projections. The projected population is for 30 June each year. The base population estimates are based on the usually resident population. Usual residents away from home temporarily are included, but visitors are excluded. Students are counted at their term-time address. It should also be noted that the UN definition of an international migrant is used - those changing country of residence for a period of at least 12 months. Short-term migrants (eg migrant workers from Eastern European countries) are not counted in the population estimates and hence are not included in the population projections.

Frequency of publication

Every two years

Data reference periods

Data are published for the period 2014 to 2039.

Users, uses and context

See weblinks.

Rounding applied

Data are rounded independently to the nearest whole number and may not add exactly. Mean and median ages are rounded to 2 decimal places and are not additive.

Revisions information

This data replaced the 2012 national population projections for Wales as the formal estimates of population growth.

Title

2014-based national population projections for Wales, 2014-2039

Last update

29 October 2015 29 October 2015

Next update

Not updated, this will be replaced by a future projection.

Publishing organisation

Welsh Government

Source 1

2014-based national population projections for Wales, Office for National Statistics

Contact email

stats.popcensus@wales.gsi.gov.uk

Designation

National Statistics

Lowest level of geographical disaggregation

Wales

Geographical coverage

Wales

Languages covered

English only

Data licensing

You may use and re-use this data free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government License - see http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence

Statistical quality

See weblinks.

Weblinks

National population projections: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/npp/national-population-projections/2014-based-projections/index.html; http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/quality/quality-information/population/quality-and-methodology-information-for-national-population-projections.pdf;
Local authority population projections statistical release: http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/local-authority-population-projections/?lang=en

Keywords

Population projections; population growth; migration; natural change; births; deaths

Name

POPU5032