Population projections by year and national park
Archived (English only) – No longer updated.
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Brecon BeaconsMetadata
POPU5018: 2008-based National Parks population projections for Wales, 2008 to 2033
Knowledge & Analytical Services, Welsh Government
Added to StatsWales: April 2011
Source: Welsh Government
Quality Information
Data Source
Population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population, and are based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends. Projections only indicate what may happen should the recent trends continue. Projections done in this way do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies on future population levels, distribution and change.
Base population
These National Park Population projections are based on the mid-2008 population estimates for National Parks.
These estimates are available on the following website.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/product.asp?vlnk=15094
Full guidance on the methodology used by the ONS to produce the population estimates can be accessed at:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/about/methodology_by_theme/sape/default.asp
Revisions
ONS in partnership with other organisations have a long-term programme of work on improving migration and population statistics. This means that population estimates are subject to regular revisions, a revised set of National Park population estimates for 2002-2008 were published on the 13th January 2011.
More information on this project can be accessed below:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/about-statistics/methodology-and-quality/imps/index.html
The 2008-based National Park population projections for Wales are based on revised population estimates.
Methodology
These projections are based on the same methodology as the 2008-based Local Authority population projections. Detailed information on this methodology is given in the associated Technical Report:
Welsh Assembly Government | 2008-based Local Authority Population Projections: Technical Report
For the National Park projections, fertility, mortality and migration data was obtained from the Office for National Statistics for the three National Parks and used to form assumptions. The methodology only differed when the required data was not available at a National Park level. The only special population group included in the National Park population projections were the home armed forces.
Frequency
The next set of Local Authority and National Park projections are likely to be published from late 2013 onwards. These will be based on the 2011 population estimates for Wales.
Source: Welsh Government
Quality Information
Data Source
Population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population, and are based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends. Projections only indicate what may happen should the recent trends continue. Projections done in this way do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies on future population levels, distribution and change.
Base population
These National Park Population projections are based on the mid-2008 population estimates for National Parks.
These estimates are available on the following website.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/product.asp?vlnk=15094
Full guidance on the methodology used by the ONS to produce the population estimates can be accessed at:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/about/methodology_by_theme/sape/default.asp
Revisions
ONS in partnership with other organisations have a long-term programme of work on improving migration and population statistics. This means that population estimates are subject to regular revisions, a revised set of National Park population estimates for 2002-2008 were published on the 13th January 2011.
More information on this project can be accessed below:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/about-statistics/methodology-and-quality/imps/index.html
The 2008-based National Park population projections for Wales are based on revised population estimates.
Methodology
These projections are based on the same methodology as the 2008-based Local Authority population projections. Detailed information on this methodology is given in the associated Technical Report:
Welsh Assembly Government | 2008-based Local Authority Population Projections: Technical Report
For the National Park projections, fertility, mortality and migration data was obtained from the Office for National Statistics for the three National Parks and used to form assumptions. The methodology only differed when the required data was not available at a National Park level. The only special population group included in the National Park population projections were the home armed forces.
Frequency
The next set of Local Authority and National Park projections are likely to be published from late 2013 onwards. These will be based on the 2011 population estimates for Wales.
Population Projections
