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Welsh Government
Data Provider: Welsh Government National Statistics Population projections by local authority, variant and year
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[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]North Wales[Collapse]Isle of AngleseyPrincipal projection69,96169,91969,89669,87969,86469,84269,82669,80069,76769,72269,68569,64869,60969,56669,52969,50369,49269,47669,46869,46769,47569,48569,49969,51869,54369,575
Lower variant69,96169,91869,84969,77269,68369,57469,46169,32569,17469,00168,83168,65768,47368,28068,08567,89667,71367,51967,32467,12966,93566,74366,55166,35866,16465,969
Higher variant69,96169,92069,93169,96070,00070,04370,09870,14870,19870,24070,29570,35670,41970,48570,56170,65570,77070,88571,01471,15571,31071,46971,63671,81071,99572,194
Ten year average migration variant69,96169,94569,94569,94869,95069,94269,93869,92369,90169,86669,83869,80969,77569,73769,70469,68269,67569,66569,66469,67269,68969,70969,73369,76369,80069,845
Fifteen year average migration variant69,96170,05270,15870,26570,36770,45570,54570,62070,68670,73570,78870,83770,87970,91570,95270,99771,05671,11071,17071,23771,31171,38771,46671,55071,63971,735
Zero migration variant69,96169,75469,53269,30269,05868,80268,53968,26967,99367,71367,43167,14966,86766,58866,31566,04865,79065,53765,29065,05364,82664,60964,40264,20564,01663,838
[Collapse]GwyneddPrincipal projection124,178124,418124,670124,936125,220125,539125,897126,288126,695127,109127,495127,871128,250128,625128,974129,292129,601129,914130,219130,506130,766131,035131,314131,603131,897132,200
Lower variant124,178124,416124,588124,748124,899125,062125,239125,428125,613125,791125,930126,050126,163126,261126,323126,342126,342126,332126,302126,242126,138126,008125,856125,687125,507125,325
Higher variant124,178124,420124,732125,077125,462125,899126,386126,920127,478128,053128,607129,162129,728130,300130,855131,388131,923132,469133,018133,558134,083134,642135,236135,858136,496137,146
Ten year average migration variant124,178124,069124,013123,982123,964123,986124,049124,150124,272124,402124,499124,588124,685124,781124,853124,895124,933124,983125,033125,070125,084125,117125,172125,247125,337125,446
Fifteen year average migration variant124,178124,015123,929123,891123,880123,916123,999124,122124,267124,415124,528124,634124,745124,856124,946125,006125,062125,131125,203125,264125,304125,365125,448125,552125,669125,807
Zero migration variant124,178123,918123,678123,463123,269123,100122,960122,838122,726122,616122,500122,369122,213122,023121,803121,555121,277120,965120,625120,265119,888119,498119,094118,684118,273117,865
[Collapse]ConwyPrincipal projection117,181117,417117,691118,001118,320118,625118,917119,194119,472119,737119,986120,230120,470120,706120,957121,216121,468121,722121,978122,235122,492122,742122,990123,241123,492123,749
Lower variant117,181117,415117,613117,825118,024118,187118,317118,413118,492118,541118,564118,569118,556118,526118,497118,461118,402118,329118,243118,140118,023117,895117,759117,614117,456117,289
Higher variant117,181117,418117,751118,136118,550118,963119,375119,784120,205120,623121,036121,455121,881122,316122,777123,258123,744124,244124,759125,286125,824126,358126,895127,440127,996128,571
Ten year average migration variant117,181117,330117,518117,740117,970118,183118,387118,579118,773118,957119,131119,301119,468119,634119,817120,011120,202120,398120,602120,809121,022121,231121,441121,654121,872122,098
Fifteen year average migration variant117,181117,421117,700118,015118,337118,641118,935119,214119,491119,754120,005120,249120,486120,718120,963121,217121,466121,717121,974122,233122,497122,756123,016123,279123,545123,819
Zero migration variant117,181116,608116,010115,398114,776114,149113,516112,880112,243111,607110,974110,348109,729109,122108,530107,950107,383106,830106,289105,759105,239104,731104,235103,752103,278102,819
[Collapse]DenbighshirePrincipal projection95,33095,49095,65595,83696,02196,19896,35896,50096,63696,75096,86596,97497,07397,18297,29197,40497,52697,64997,78097,92298,06898,21598,36598,52098,68098,848
Lower variant95,33095,48895,58895,68495,76495,81995,83795,82095,78195,70795,62395,52395,40395,28295,14995,00894,86494,70894,54894,38694,21794,04793,87493,70193,52193,339
Higher variant95,33095,49195,70595,95096,21696,48896,75197,00797,26797,51497,77198,03098,29198,57098,85999,16299,48399,816100,165100,534100,915101,299101,691102,091102,504102,935
Ten year average migration variant95,33095,51995,70695,90796,10796,30296,47896,63796,79396,92997,06697,19997,32297,45297,58197,71397,85197,98998,13498,28998,44898,60598,76598,93199,10299,283
Fifteen year average migration variant95,33095,73896,13696,54296,94197,32897,69098,02898,35698,65498,94799,22999,49499,760100,017100,272100,529100,782101,038101,302101,567101,828102,088102,350102,615102,887
Zero migration variant95,33095,02894,72294,41794,10793,79593,47693,15592,82992,49592,15691,81691,47891,14790,81990,50590,20289,90689,63089,36989,12088,88388,65988,45088,25488,072
[Collapse]FlintshirePrincipal projection155,593156,019156,444156,862157,264157,626157,940158,224158,459158,663158,864159,034159,201159,366159,541159,732159,933160,130160,336160,556160,785161,018161,258161,505161,760162,030
Lower variant155,593156,017156,344156,628156,863157,025157,108157,135157,085156,983156,863156,698156,514156,313156,106155,899155,685155,451155,209154,965154,715154,465154,218153,968153,713153,456
Higher variant155,593156,021156,517157,032157,559158,068158,544159,007159,435159,845160,266160,670161,083161,510161,960162,440162,942163,454163,988164,547165,126165,712166,310166,921167,550168,207
Ten year average migration variant155,593155,892156,189156,479156,752156,984157,172157,330157,446157,535157,626157,693157,763157,836157,921158,026158,141158,255158,378158,516158,661158,811158,970159,137159,315159,506
Fifteen year average migration variant155,593155,947156,298156,640156,965157,245157,478157,684157,843157,976158,114158,225158,340158,459158,591158,744158,908159,071159,245159,434159,630159,830160,037160,250160,473160,708
Zero migration variant155,593155,621155,610155,556155,462155,329155,165154,969154,744154,495154,224153,934153,636153,333153,030152,733152,434152,139151,850151,566151,280150,998150,718150,435150,149149,860
[Collapse]WrexhamPrincipal projection136,126135,955135,791135,635135,466135,279135,072134,844134,611134,375134,142133,908133,676133,469133,282133,122132,979132,862132,754132,661132,590132,532132,486132,454132,434132,429
Lower variant136,126135,953135,699135,421135,103134,740134,334133,885133,411132,919132,419131,909131,388130,882130,385129,902129,423128,958128,487128,019127,560127,108126,661126,217125,772125,326
Higher variant136,126135,956135,858135,789135,732135,674135,607135,530135,458135,393135,340135,297135,265135,268135,302135,372135,471135,606135,759135,938136,147136,374136,619136,886137,174137,489
Ten year average migration variant136,126136,437136,734137,020137,280137,509137,708137,878138,035138,180138,318138,449138,573138,715138,869139,039139,219139,415139,612139,817140,035140,258140,486140,718140,955141,197
Fifteen year average migration variant136,126136,705137,263137,803138,311138,782139,219139,624140,013140,388140,752141,104141,447141,804142,170142,549142,934143,332143,727144,127144,535144,943145,353145,764146,174146,586
Zero migration variant136,126136,116136,082136,018135,923135,805135,668135,514135,348135,172134,989134,807134,627134,453134,290134,138133,996133,864133,741133,627133,525133,432133,348133,268133,188133,110
[Collapse]Mid and South West Wales[Collapse]PowysPrincipal projection132,447132,394132,421132,475132,538132,597132,653132,710132,765132,797132,836132,880132,905132,956133,009133,080133,147133,211133,280133,354133,434133,516133,602133,697133,804133,927
Lower variant132,447132,393132,337132,283132,213132,116131,993131,850131,684131,479131,269131,051130,802130,565130,316130,068129,802129,515129,216128,906128,587128,268127,949127,629127,308126,988
Higher variant132,447132,396132,485132,621132,787132,965133,153133,356133,567133,768133,987134,222134,450134,717134,998135,309135,631135,962136,310136,676137,059137,445137,840138,249138,680139,141
Ten year average migration variant132,447132,404132,438132,492132,552132,604132,650132,696132,740132,763132,794132,833132,851132,892132,932132,987133,041133,089133,143133,202133,268133,334133,405133,485133,575133,683
Fifteen year average migration variant132,447132,742133,118133,511133,904134,279134,640134,993135,331135,634135,934136,227136,485136,755137,013137,276137,528137,764138,000138,234138,471138,702138,933139,168139,409139,662
Zero migration variant132,447131,957131,447130,922130,378129,823129,260128,688128,108127,520126,932126,347125,762125,177124,600124,034123,466122,892122,324121,760121,194120,633120,071119,511118,952118,400
[Collapse]CeredigionPrincipal projection72,99272,36571,89771,49171,15170,90970,75970,67470,62970,61670,58470,53670,49070,44570,35170,20470,04369,89269,73169,54469,33869,15769,00968,89568,80668,745
Lower variant72,99272,36371,85271,39070,98170,65770,41470,22670,06769,93469,77669,59869,41669,22768,98368,67868,35168,02767,68467,30766,89766,47466,05065,63765,24064,871
Higher variant72,99272,36771,93271,57071,28671,10871,02971,02371,06271,13871,19971,25071,30871,37271,39471,36971,33671,32071,30071,25971,21071,21271,27371,38671,52671,689
Ten year average migration variant72,99272,55672,32572,08971,83671,64271,52671,46771,44271,44571,41271,35371,29271,22971,10170,90870,70370,51870,32370,09669,84769,63369,46469,33469,23069,156
Fifteen year average migration variant72,99272,68772,61172,52472,42172,37972,40772,48472,58872,71472,79672,84672,89172,92772,88972,78472,66772,56872,45272,30172,12871,99171,89871,83871,80171,790
Zero migration variant72,99272,76672,56172,38172,22772,10272,00771,94471,90171,87071,83771,79071,72171,62271,49271,32771,13070,89770,62870,33270,01469,68469,34669,00268,65468,309
[Collapse]PembrokeshirePrincipal projection125,055125,350125,650125,989126,301126,580126,838127,073127,297127,486127,672127,840127,992128,139128,307128,482128,648128,811128,973129,143129,318129,488129,658129,832130,009130,196
Lower variant125,055125,348125,572125,810125,999126,133126,225126,275126,295126,265126,221126,147126,044125,922125,808125,685125,538125,374125,192125,004124,806124,598124,382124,158123,924123,683
Higher variant125,055125,351125,710126,124126,532126,921127,299127,667128,034128,376128,725129,067129,404129,747130,123130,518130,915131,321131,738132,174132,624133,075133,531133,997134,477134,979
Ten year average migration variant125,055125,141125,238125,377125,490125,571125,632125,679125,722125,738125,757125,768125,769125,769125,795125,832125,864125,901125,939125,994126,059126,127126,200126,279126,367126,469
Fifteen year average migration variant125,055125,224125,415125,658125,877126,062126,224126,368126,506126,610126,715126,807126,887126,961127,061127,171127,275127,381127,487127,611127,746127,884128,026128,176128,334128,505
Zero migration variant125,055124,588124,098123,591123,068122,528121,976121,419120,856120,292119,727119,158118,594118,034117,481116,935116,393115,852115,317114,785114,257113,733113,210112,689112,171111,658
[Collapse]CarmarthenshirePrincipal projection187,568188,031188,517189,021189,525190,022190,493190,935191,342191,731192,118192,467192,787193,104193,432193,765194,091194,404194,725195,060195,406195,751196,106196,468196,837197,218
Lower variant187,568188,029188,389188,729189,033189,293189,493189,633189,706189,738189,748189,703189,610189,491189,363189,218189,042188,830188,602188,364188,115187,856187,594187,323187,039186,746
Higher variant187,568188,034188,614189,241189,898190,572191,238191,894192,531193,165193,813194,441195,057195,687196,346197,028197,721198,420199,143199,898200,678201,465202,273203,098203,946204,823
Ten year average migration variant187,568187,918188,274188,644189,009189,366189,701190,015190,298190,570190,847191,096191,326191,560191,810192,068192,324192,574192,833193,105193,390193,676193,973194,280194,594194,922
Fifteen year average migration variant187,568188,283188,995189,714190,422191,116191,780192,415193,011193,587194,159194,694195,199195,701196,212196,725197,230197,722198,216198,717199,224199,727200,235200,746201,260201,781
Zero migration variant187,568186,888186,200185,506184,801184,085183,358182,623181,878181,127180,369179,611178,859178,117177,388176,671175,961175,259174,570173,896173,237172,591171,959171,335170,715170,101
[Collapse]SwanseaPrincipal projection246,466247,217247,912248,586249,275250,004250,796251,648252,545253,472254,379255,263256,146257,020257,835258,579259,274259,967260,640261,267261,837262,410262,999263,601264,213264,840
Lower variant246,466247,212247,748248,206248,627249,040249,466249,912250,363250,815251,229251,602251,955252,278252,522252,672252,752252,806252,815252,754252,606252,396252,138251,840251,515251,179
Higher variant246,466247,221248,034248,867249,759250,726251,778252,915254,115255,362256,608257,847259,102260,367261,590262,760263,900265,056266,210267,336268,428269,567270,770272,025273,314274,630
Ten year average migration variant246,466246,752247,034247,338247,678248,076248,547249,091249,685250,316250,932251,529252,130252,729253,274253,755254,191254,635255,072255,470255,821256,190256,587257,006257,442257,899
Fifteen year average migration variant246,466246,703246,948247,226247,551247,941248,410248,954249,552250,189250,815251,426252,046252,666253,234253,741254,207254,681255,150255,581255,970256,379256,816257,276257,752258,249
Zero migration variant246,466246,225246,003245,796245,602245,415245,243245,076244,907244,717244,494244,230243,921243,553243,130242,652242,117241,534240,904240,232239,526238,796238,045237,280236,506235,732
[Collapse]Neath Port TalbotPrincipal projection142,906143,188143,577144,003144,447144,894145,308145,703146,090146,475146,840147,195147,555147,897148,225148,561148,890149,219149,547149,879150,206150,539150,874151,210151,548151,889
Lower variant142,906143,187143,479143,778144,065144,326144,528144,685144,810144,914144,984145,031145,068145,073145,048145,015144,960144,887144,798144,695144,572144,437144,296144,145143,982143,805
Higher variant142,906143,190143,649144,169144,732145,316145,882146,442147,006147,580148,147148,716149,302149,883150,463151,063151,670152,289152,918153,564154,217154,887155,566156,254156,955157,670
Ten year average migration variant142,906143,016143,211143,440143,681143,916144,124144,319144,511144,701144,882145,058145,239145,411145,585145,768145,950146,135146,325146,524146,725146,930147,141147,356147,577147,802
Fifteen year average migration variant142,906143,148143,461143,799144,140144,468144,769145,055145,338145,613145,880146,143146,407146,662146,921147,185147,447147,711147,980148,255148,532148,809149,090149,373149,659149,948
Zero migration variant142,906142,647142,367142,063141,732141,382141,016140,636140,243139,839139,421138,996138,569138,137137,702137,264136,825136,383135,940135,498135,051134,604134,159133,715133,269132,822
[Collapse]South East Wales[Collapse]BridgendPrincipal projection144,876145,663146,417147,165147,892148,576149,234149,852150,447151,020151,585152,112152,590153,057153,535154,006154,493154,961155,439155,920156,395156,861157,328157,793158,255158,718
Lower variant144,876145,661146,317146,934147,497147,988148,423148,793149,115149,397149,656149,864150,008150,126150,239150,329150,418150,472150,517150,548150,558150,555150,546150,522150,480150,420
Higher variant144,876145,664146,490147,335148,184149,011149,826150,616151,395152,165152,939153,688154,401155,115155,855156,600157,375158,145158,936159,743160,555161,361162,175162,994163,823164,665
Ten year average migration variant144,876145,400145,891146,377146,845147,274147,678148,051148,407148,748149,089149,403149,674149,943150,229150,515150,822151,118151,425151,742152,061152,376152,694153,012153,331153,653
Fifteen year average migration variant144,876145,479146,050146,616147,164147,672148,156148,607149,041149,457149,873150,259150,600150,937151,291151,642152,015152,372152,742153,121153,501153,876154,253154,629155,005155,382
Zero migration variant144,876144,699144,496144,267144,010143,730143,429143,107142,763142,403142,026141,640141,250140,862140,479140,100139,728139,361139,001138,649138,302137,958137,623137,293136,962136,632
[Collapse]Vale of GlamorganPrincipal projection132,165132,987133,864134,749135,617136,448137,233137,999138,713139,384140,044140,671141,277141,853142,433142,996143,524144,038144,536145,040145,544146,036146,527147,013147,501147,987
Lower variant132,165132,985133,776134,544135,262135,914136,489137,016137,465137,850138,208138,517138,790139,017139,233139,415139,546139,647139,715139,772139,815139,847139,875139,891139,898139,888
Higher variant132,165132,989133,928134,899135,879136,845137,780138,713139,609140,476141,347142,199143,043143,872144,719145,563146,385147,207148,026148,865149,713150,551151,390152,229153,078153,938
Ten year average migration variant132,165132,615133,118133,635134,140134,614135,049135,469135,845136,185136,525136,842137,148137,434137,736138,030138,298138,563138,821139,094139,375139,653139,936140,225140,521140,824
Fifteen year average migration variant132,165132,711133,303133,906134,493135,043135,552136,044136,489136,896137,301137,679138,045138,389138,748139,100139,425139,748140,064140,394140,732141,064141,400141,740142,085142,435
Zero migration variant132,165132,123132,059131,971131,858131,722131,567131,397131,214131,018130,809130,589130,361130,131129,905129,679129,454129,234129,026128,822128,621128,423128,231128,039127,845127,647
[Collapse]CardiffPrincipal projection364,248365,317366,311367,190368,090369,122370,283371,571372,944374,379375,733377,033378,331379,637380,800381,787382,685383,572384,384385,070385,635386,225386,861387,523388,195388,890
Lower variant364,248365,307366,060366,603367,079367,604368,178368,807369,460370,133370,700371,190371,655372,103372,384372,462372,425372,349372,169371,832371,327370,713370,008369,221368,373367,495
Higher variant364,248365,327366,493367,616368,837370,249371,834373,587375,459377,419379,323381,198383,095385,023386,833388,490390,081391,685393,237394,685396,049397,535399,166400,903402,696404,530
Ten year average migration variant364,248365,192366,145367,049368,023369,158370,441371,861373,367374,933376,409377,824379,233380,647381,917383,011384,017385,018385,951386,763387,460388,186388,963389,766390,576391,404
Fifteen year average migration variant364,248365,113365,993366,842367,778368,886370,148371,548373,039374,594376,065377,479378,892380,315381,597382,709383,739384,769385,733386,581387,320388,094388,918389,769390,625391,498
Zero migration variant364,248365,300366,464367,714369,047370,469371,986373,577375,217376,866378,489380,051381,509382,817383,941384,862385,572386,070386,369386,499386,495386,383386,180385,903385,578385,229
[Collapse]Rhondda Cynon TafPrincipal projection240,131240,809241,492242,158242,784243,406243,993244,556245,115245,645246,148246,641247,122247,605248,098248,598249,111249,637250,182250,738251,293251,850252,418252,991253,564254,145
Lower variant240,131240,806241,327241,775242,129242,432242,652242,806242,917242,971242,977242,954242,899242,826242,740242,640242,529242,409242,283242,144241,980241,795241,593241,369241,118240,848
Higher variant240,131240,812241,612242,436243,263244,120244,964245,805246,661247,507248,341249,184250,034250,904251,802252,725253,679254,664255,685256,733257,799258,883259,997261,136262,295263,480
Ten year average migration variant240,131240,493240,857241,205241,518241,834242,121242,395242,674242,935243,179243,417243,651243,893244,146244,408244,687244,979245,293245,620245,948246,283246,633246,994247,361247,742
Fifteen year average migration variant240,131240,678241,213241,720242,182242,637243,060243,469243,881244,275244,648245,015245,375245,742246,115246,495246,888247,293247,718248,153248,587249,027249,481249,945250,414250,897
Zero migration variant240,131240,075239,996239,874239,699239,484239,223238,915238,569238,182237,756237,297236,811236,304235,778235,242234,700234,154233,601233,048232,494231,939231,387230,835230,279229,724
[Collapse]Merthyr TydfilPrincipal projection60,18360,37660,56760,75160,91961,08061,23261,37161,49861,61361,72661,84061,95462,06462,17662,29362,40862,52662,64562,76862,89663,02563,15463,28263,41063,538
Lower variant60,18360,37560,52560,65360,75260,83260,89160,92760,94260,93860,92760,91260,89260,86360,83060,79660,75560,71160,66160,60960,55760,50260,44260,37760,30460,223
Higher variant60,18360,37660,59760,82161,04161,26061,47561,68461,88462,07662,27162,47162,67662,88163,09363,31363,53763,76864,00664,25164,50564,76365,02465,28865,55665,830
Ten year average migration variant60,18360,30860,43660,55860,66360,76360,85460,93461,00161,06061,12061,18361,24761,30961,37761,45061,52361,59961,67961,76361,85361,94462,03462,12262,21162,299
Fifteen year average migration variant60,18360,30560,43260,55360,65560,75460,84560,92360,99061,04661,10461,16661,22961,28961,35561,42661,49661,57061,64861,73061,81961,90861,99862,08662,17562,264
Zero migration variant60,18360,22760,25560,26360,25360,22760,18960,13760,07159,99559,91059,82059,72559,62759,52759,43059,33559,24259,15059,06258,97958,89658,81558,73458,65558,574
[Collapse]CaerphillyPrincipal projection181,019181,303181,585181,846182,060182,236182,398182,527182,637182,722182,794182,856182,923183,006183,102183,214183,339183,466183,617183,786183,965184,149184,340184,538184,740184,948
Lower variant181,019181,301181,465181,565181,579181,520181,414181,243181,024180,759180,466180,149179,821179,495179,165178,834178,501178,152177,810177,468177,120176,770176,417176,055175,681175,293
Higher variant181,019181,305181,672182,048182,410182,758183,108183,441183,769184,086184,402184,723185,061185,431185,827186,252186,704187,171187,674188,209188,765189,332189,914190,511191,125191,761
Ten year average migration variant181,019181,204181,387181,547181,662181,741181,807181,842181,859181,851181,834181,806181,783181,776181,784181,807181,843181,884181,947182,030182,127182,231182,344182,466182,596182,734
Fifteen year average migration variant181,019181,321181,616181,884182,103182,284182,449182,580182,690182,774182,846182,906182,971183,049183,141183,246183,363183,484183,626183,786183,959184,137184,324184,517184,717184,925
Zero migration variant181,019181,078181,091181,053180,956180,813180,631180,411180,156179,871179,560179,228178,878178,519178,154177,785177,414177,041176,668176,294175,919175,546175,171174,792174,407174,020
[Collapse]Blaenau GwentPrincipal projection69,71369,65969,61569,58369,54869,50869,46069,40169,34669,29369,24169,19269,15269,12269,09769,07969,07169,07069,07869,09169,11069,13269,15769,18669,21569,244
Lower variant69,71369,65969,56669,47169,35969,22969,08168,91068,73368,55168,36668,17867,99467,81467,63367,45367,27667,10066,92566,74866,56966,39066,20766,02265,82965,626
Higher variant69,71369,66069,65269,66669,68969,71569,73969,75669,78269,81569,85469,90069,96070,03570,11970,21670,32870,45270,59070,73870,89771,06371,23571,41671,60371,797
Ten year average migration variant69,71369,61369,52269,44369,36169,27669,18569,08568,98968,89668,80768,72168,64768,58668,52968,48068,44368,41268,39268,37768,36968,36568,36468,36868,37368,379
Fifteen year average migration variant69,71369,66569,62469,59569,56469,52869,48769,43569,38669,33869,29169,24669,21069,18469,16169,14469,13869,13769,14569,15769,17669,19969,22569,25669,28869,322
Zero migration variant69,71369,56269,40169,23369,05168,86068,66168,45368,23868,01567,78467,54967,31067,06966,82366,57566,32766,08065,83565,59265,35265,11364,87764,64464,41164,178
[Collapse]TorfaenPrincipal projection93,04993,31293,58793,85694,11194,35494,56794,76394,95895,14795,32995,50795,68095,85796,03496,21896,40996,60096,78996,98697,18797,38797,58597,78297,98098,178
Lower variant93,04993,31293,52493,70893,85993,97994,05094,08894,10994,11294,09894,07494,03593,99393,94093,88693,82993,76293,68393,60293,51693,42593,32693,21893,10192,972
Higher variant93,04993,31493,63493,96394,29794,63094,94395,24895,56095,87396,18696,50496,82497,15697,49497,84898,21798,59398,97599,37299,780100,190100,602101,019101,444101,878
Ten year average migration variant93,04993,16293,28593,40193,51093,60793,67693,73393,79093,84593,89493,94193,98894,04094,09494,15894,23394,31094,38894,47694,57194,66794,76494,86494,96595,070
Fifteen year average migration variant93,04993,13493,23193,32293,40593,47893,52293,55593,59093,62393,65293,67893,70393,73493,76793,81093,86393,91893,97594,04294,11694,19294,26994,35094,43494,522
Zero migration variant93,04992,97892,89692,79592,67692,54192,39392,23392,06191,87891,68591,48391,27491,06290,84390,62090,39790,17689,95189,72689,50289,27989,05688,83388,60888,382
[Collapse]MonmouthshirePrincipal projection94,14294,44194,76895,13495,48995,82696,16996,49996,79297,08997,37397,65697,92698,19598,45598,72698,98699,23699,48099,73799,996100,246100,492100,736100,980101,230
Lower variant94,14294,43994,71395,00495,26795,49395,70595,88796,01496,13296,22596,30696,36296,40696,42896,44896,44496,41896,37296,32696,27096,20696,13496,05495,96495,869
Higher variant94,14294,44294,81295,23395,66196,08496,52596,96597,37997,80798,23298,66799,09999,54299,985100,451100,916101,382101,852102,345102,847103,343103,837104,332104,834105,352
Ten year average migration variant94,14294,31094,51694,76094,99695,22095,44995,66795,85196,04296,22196,40296,57296,74296,90597,08097,24697,40697,56497,73797,91498,08698,25798,42998,60398,786
Fifteen year average migration variant94,14294,30794,52294,78295,03895,28195,53295,77395,97796,18496,38096,57796,76196,94697,12297,31097,48797,65697,82498,00798,19398,37598,55698,73998,92699,122
Zero migration variant94,14293,83093,49993,15692,79992,43092,04991,65791,25790,85190,43690,01789,59589,17288,74988,32887,90887,49187,07386,64986,22385,79685,36684,92984,48384,029
[Collapse]NewportPrincipal projection153,302154,529155,763156,972158,154159,298160,402161,476162,509163,474164,406165,314166,187167,040167,877168,701169,501170,296171,091171,897172,702173,499174,290175,078175,858176,632
Lower variant153,302154,526155,647156,698157,682158,588159,418160,183160,876161,478162,031162,543163,006163,431163,823164,185164,507164,806165,088165,365165,624165,870166,104166,323166,521166,699
Higher variant153,302154,531155,845157,166158,494159,811161,108162,392163,651164,858166,047167,227168,389169,545170,700171,856173,004174,160175,330176,524177,729178,930180,132181,339182,547183,762
Ten year average migration variant153,302154,153154,988155,788156,556157,293158,002158,695159,365159,991160,601161,204161,790162,369162,942163,508164,062164,617165,177165,749166,319166,886167,453168,019168,582169,145
Fifteen year average migration variant153,302154,002154,686155,337155,958156,551157,122157,679158,218158,717159,206159,690160,162160,630161,097161,560162,013162,469162,933163,412163,890164,367164,847165,330165,813166,298
Zero migration variant153,302153,699154,077154,418154,718154,984155,221155,429155,610155,760155,885155,996156,096156,192156,287156,382156,483156,597156,724156,866157,017157,181157,355157,538157,726157,918

Metadata

Title

2018-based local authority population projections for Wales, 2018 to 2043

Last update

August 2021 August 2021

Next update

No longer updated. This will be replaced by a future projection.

Publishing organisation

Welsh Government

Source 1

2018-based projections for local authorities in Wales, Welsh Government

Contact email

stats.popcensus@gov.wales

Designation

National Statistics

Lowest level of geographical disaggregation

Local authorities

Geographical coverage

Local authorities

Languages covered

English and Welsh

Data licensing

You may use and re-use this data free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government License - see http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence

General description

This dataset provides population projections for local authorities in Wales by sex, single year of age and each year from the base year of 2018, through the projection period to 2043. This is the fifth set of population projections published for the 22 local authorities in Wales.

Note that the projections become increasingly uncertain the further we try to look into the future.

Data collection and calculation

Population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population, and are based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends. Projections only indicate what may happen should the recent trends continue. Projections done in this way do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies on future population levels, distribution and change.

The 2018 population estimates have been used as the base for the local authority projections. The projected population is for 30 June each year. The base population estimates are based on the usually resident population. Usual residents away from home temporarily are included, but visitors are excluded. Students are counted at their term-time address. It should also be noted that the UN definition of an international migrant is used - those changing country of residence for a period of at least 12 months. Short-term migrants (e.g. migrant workers from Eastern European countries) are not counted in the population estimates and hence are not included in the population projections. The projections are based on an assumed pattern of migration based on projecting forward the average migration patterns over the last five years.

The Chief Statistician published an update in February 2020, giving an overview of the methodological changes that had been made to the local authority projections since the 2014-based local authority projections. This included:
• changing the assumptions for internal migration, so that they were based on migration rates rather than fixed numbers
• constraining the sum of the local authority population projections, and some of the component parts, for the 22 local authorities in Wales to the 2018-based national population projections published by the ONS
Another update was issued in July 2020, announcing the publication date for the revised local authority population and household projections, and the decision to revert to not constraining the local authority population projections.

Following discussions with the Wales Subnational Projections (WaSP) group, we made the decision to revert, in part, to the previous methodology for calculating local authority population projections by removing the constraining to the national population projections. The decision to constrain to the national population projections initially was made as a result of the incorrect national population projections showing a different trend to the local authority population projections. However, as this is no longer the case, we have reverted to the original methodology of not constraining in order to provide better continuity with previous local authority population projections, so that they are mainly driven by local trends for births, deaths and migration.

We have, however, retained the change made to the assumptions for internal migration so that they continue to be based on migration rates rather than fixed numbers. Further information can be found in the update.

We will continue to refine this methodology prior to our next set of subnational projections and take account of user feedback.

Five additional variant projections are also published alongside the principal projection. This includes a low population variant and a high population variant, as well as three variants based on alternative migration assumptions. These are a zero migration variant, a 10-year average migration variant and a 15-year average migration variant.

Frequency of publication

Every two to four years

Data reference periods

Data are published for the period 2018 to 2043.

Users, uses and context

See the local authority population projection statistical release in weblinks.

Rounding applied

Data are rounded independently to the nearest whole number and may not add exactly.

Revisions information

These data replaced the 2014 local authority population projections for Wales as the formal estimates of population growth.

On Monday 18 May 2020, the ONS issued a notice on its website informing users that they had identified an error affecting the 2018-based national population projections. The error was caused by incorrect processing of cross-border flows between Wales and England, resulting in the projected mid-2028 population for Wales being approximately 65,000 too low, and that for England being approximately 65,000 too high.
Having consulted with our expert group about the implications for our statistical products that were based on the 2018-based national population projections, we decided to withdraw the 2018-based local authority population projections and household projections.

The ONS published corrected national projections for Wales on Thursday 11 June. These local authority projections are based on the corrected 2018-based national population projections for Wales. Further information about the corrections can be found in the 2018-based local authority population projections release, as well as an analysis of how these corrected projections compare with the previously published projections.


Keywords

Population projections; population growth; migration; natural change; births; deaths

Statistical quality

See the local authority population projection statistical release in weblinks.

Name

POPU6010