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Data Provider: Welsh Government National Statistics Population projections by local authority and year
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[Collapse]Wales3,092,0363,099,8903,108,0543,116,3713,124,7843,133,3363,142,0243,150,8213,159,7163,168,5513,177,1583,185,4673,193,4003,200,8843,207,9273,214,5263,220,6983,226,4673,231,8333,236,8053,241,3903,245,6143,249,5123,253,0973,256,4123,259,522
Wales[Collapse]North Wales694,038695,549697,122698,716700,311701,923703,548705,184706,826708,436709,978711,439712,809714,076715,238716,299717,258718,128718,907719,602720,215720,753721,226721,634721,993722,317
North WalesIsle of Anglesey70,16970,16570,17070,17670,17570,17470,16970,16270,14970,12970,09470,04569,98469,90869,81969,71869,60769,48869,36269,23169,09368,95068,80368,65468,50268,348
Gwynedd122,273122,605122,948123,299123,660124,034124,426124,835125,265125,710126,166126,628127,091127,551128,006128,456128,901129,338129,768130,191130,608131,014131,416131,809132,198132,585
Conwy116,287116,414116,561116,717116,879117,048117,223117,402117,585117,761117,925118,076118,210118,326118,422118,499118,555118,593118,611118,610118,588118,547118,488118,413118,324118,222
Denbighshire94,79194,95995,14495,33695,53095,72995,93196,13196,32896,51796,69096,84796,98497,10297,19997,27597,33397,37697,40197,41497,41597,40497,38997,36997,34797,326
Flintshire153,804154,088154,372154,651154,923155,186155,442155,689155,927156,149156,347156,515156,655156,765156,840156,885156,899156,880156,834156,760156,662156,543156,402156,239156,056155,859
Wrexham136,714137,318137,927138,536139,143139,751140,358140,965141,572142,172142,756143,327143,884144,425144,952145,465145,963146,453146,932147,396147,850148,295148,728149,150149,566149,976
[Collapse]Mid and South West Wales898,451899,902901,436902,994904,561906,148907,759909,390911,043912,659914,199915,642916,960918,131919,154920,029920,756921,345921,794922,101922,262922,289922,196921,983921,658921,241
Mid and South West WalesPowys132,675132,487132,303132,116131,922131,721131,514131,301131,080130,840130,573130,279129,955129,593129,192128,755128,282127,770127,222126,636126,011125,351124,661123,939123,189122,415
Ceredigion75,42575,64075,86476,09276,32476,56376,81277,07177,34377,62477,91278,20578,50078,79579,08779,37779,66279,94480,22280,49980,76881,03281,29281,54981,80282,051
Pembrokeshire123,666123,758123,858123,957124,054124,149124,241124,329124,412124,482124,533124,562124,564124,537124,487124,405124,296124,163124,006123,822123,611123,376123,119122,840122,540122,225
Carmarthenshire184,898185,181185,485185,796186,110186,428186,752187,079187,405187,720188,015188,284188,524188,732188,907189,049189,160189,243189,295189,317189,309189,274189,215189,131189,026188,902
Swansea241,297242,157243,046243,951244,867245,801246,752247,720248,710249,706250,696251,677252,639253,574254,485255,374256,239257,078257,893258,685259,452260,194260,914261,611262,286262,944
Neath Port Talbot140,490140,679140,879141,083141,284141,486141,688141,890142,093142,288142,469142,635142,779142,900142,996143,068143,117143,146143,156143,143143,111143,063142,997142,912142,814142,704
[Collapse]South East Wales1,499,5471,504,4381,509,4961,514,6611,519,9131,525,2651,530,7171,536,2471,541,8471,547,4551,552,9811,558,3871,563,6311,568,6771,573,5351,578,1981,582,6831,586,9941,591,1311,595,1021,598,9121,602,5721,606,0901,609,4801,612,7621,615,964
South East WalesBridgend141,214141,622142,038142,450142,862143,272143,683144,093144,497144,892145,271145,626145,959146,265146,544146,797147,028147,240147,432147,605147,758147,889148,005148,104148,189148,263
Vale of Glamorgan127,685127,833127,985128,133128,280128,424128,565128,702128,836128,958129,067129,163129,240129,295129,325129,331129,314129,274129,209129,119129,006128,871128,715128,539128,344128,135
Cardiff354,294357,353360,491363,693366,959370,299373,717377,217380,806384,465388,172391,915395,679399,451403,227407,005410,781414,557418,330422,096425,858429,615433,371437,129440,893444,668
Rhondda Cynon Taf236,888237,240237,626238,042238,482238,945239,431239,936240,455240,977241,486241,977242,441242,878243,289243,674244,037244,379244,701245,003245,290245,561245,812246,045246,267246,481
Merthyr Tydfil59,06559,10159,13959,18059,21959,25459,28759,31359,33259,34359,34359,33259,30859,26959,22059,16159,09159,01158,92158,82358,71758,60158,47658,34458,20758,062
Caerphilly179,941180,206180,481180,754181,027181,296181,558181,812182,057182,287182,489182,661182,799182,905182,977183,015183,019182,994182,943182,866182,763182,636182,485182,314182,126181,924
Blaenau Gwent69,67469,60969,54969,49269,43369,37469,31469,25269,18469,10969,02268,92268,80768,67668,53268,37468,20368,01967,82467,61967,40567,18666,96066,73066,49666,258
Torfaen91,60991,70391,79991,89691,99192,08792,18292,27392,35692,42992,48492,52092,53892,53392,51092,46392,39992,31892,22192,10991,98691,85391,70991,55791,39691,229
Monmouthshire92,33692,48792,63992,78792,93193,07093,20993,34193,46893,58893,69493,78493,85493,90193,92593,92593,90093,84793,76693,65793,52093,35693,16692,95092,71192,452
Newport146,841147,284147,749148,234148,729149,243149,770150,308150,856151,408151,952152,486153,005153,504153,987154,455154,910155,354155,785156,204156,610157,005157,391157,769158,134158,492

Metadata

Data licensing

You may use and re-use this data free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government License - see http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence

Title

2014-based local authority population projections for Wales, 2014 to 2039

Last update

September 2016 September 2016

Next update

No longer updated. This will be replaced by a future projection.

Publishing organisation

Welsh Government

Source 2

2014-based projections for local authorities in Wales, Welsh Government

Contact email

stats.popcensus@gov.wales

Designation

National Statistics

Lowest level of geographical disaggregation

Local authorities

Geographical coverage

Local authorities

Languages covered

English and Welsh

Statistical quality

See the local authority population projection statistical release in weblinks.

General description

This dataset provides population projections for local authorities in Wales by gender, single year of age and each year from the base year of 2014, through the projection period to 2039. This is the fourth set of population projections published for the 22 local authorities in Wales.
Note that the projections become increasingly uncertain the further we try to look into the future.
Also note that these figures differ from the Wales data in the national population projections produced by the Office for National Statistics because the key aim of the local authority population projections is to produce robust local authority population projections for Wales, which reflect local trends in recent years while the main purpose of the national projections is to produce robust population projections for Wales which reflect national trends in recent years.
The national projections and the local authority projections are different for two main reasons:
1. The methodology used to produce assumptions in the local authority projections are different to those used in the national projections. Some of these are due to slightly different data sources.
Also, although one set of assumptions may fit well for a national trend, using similar assumptions may not always produce feasible results for all local authority areas because of the different nature and trends between local authorities.
2. The geographical level for which the assumptions are based and applied is also important. For example, it is not appropriate to sum local rates (eg fertility) to derive a national rate, and therefore a model operating at different geographic levels (but using rates) will produce different results for the different geographic levels.


Data collection and calculation

Population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population, and are based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends. Projections only indicate what may happen should the recent trends continue. Projections done in this way do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies on future population levels, distribution and change.
The 2014 population estimates have been used as the base for the local authority projections. The projected population is for 30 June each year. The base population estimates are based on the usually resident population. Usual residents away from home temporarily are included, but visitors are excluded. Students are counted at their term-time address. It should also be noted that the UN definition of an international migrant is used - those changing country of residence for a period of at least 12 months. Short-term migrants (eg migrant workers from Eastern European countries) are not counted in the population estimates and hence are not included in the population projections.
The projections are based on an assumed pattern of migration based on projecting forward the average migration patterns over the last five years.
Four migration variants are also published covering different migration scenarios, ranging from a zero migration estimate, to a low estimate, to a high estimate. A further estimate based on projecting forward the average migration patterns over the last ten years is also available (the variants are in a separate dataset in the same area of StatsWales).

Frequency of publication

Every two to four years

Data reference periods

Data are published for the period 2014 to 2039.

Users, uses and context

See the local authority population projection statistical release in weblinks.

Rounding applied

Data are rounded independently to the nearest whole number and may not add exactly.

Revisions information

No revisions have been made to the data published for 2014. These data replaced the 2011 local authority population projections for Wales as the formal estimates of population growth.

Keywords

Population projections; population growth; migration; natural change; births; deaths