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Welsh Government
Data Provider: Welsh Government National Statistics Population projections by local authority, variant and year
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[Collapse]W92000004[Expand]Wales
[Collapse]WXX000001[Collapse]Wales[Expand]North Wales
[Collapse]W06000001[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]North Wales[Collapse]Isle of AngleseyPrincipal projection70,16970,16570,17070,17670,17570,17470,16970,16270,14970,12970,09470,04569,98469,90869,81969,71869,60769,48869,36269,23169,09368,95068,80368,65468,50268,348
Lower variant70,16970,16570,12970,08370,02069,94669,85869,75769,64069,50769,35569,18669,00268,80268,58868,35868,11567,86067,59567,32167,03566,73966,43566,12565,80565,477
Higher variant70,16970,16570,19570,22970,26170,29870,33570,37670,41670,45570,48970,52170,55070,57170,58470,59070,59170,58970,58570,58270,57870,57570,57570,58270,59270,608
Zero migration variant70,16970,13170,10370,08070,05470,03170,01169,99469,98069,96369,94169,91569,88669,85369,81769,77569,72869,67969,62969,58069,52769,47269,41669,36269,30969,258
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.70,16970,24870,33770,42970,51570,60270,68770,77170,85170,92570,98671,03471,07071,09271,10271,10071,08871,06971,04471,01570,98070,94270,90070,85970,81670,774
[Collapse]W06000002[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]North Wales[Collapse]GwyneddPrincipal projection122,273122,605122,948123,299123,660124,034124,426124,835125,265125,710126,166126,628127,091127,551128,006128,456128,901129,338129,768130,191130,608131,014131,416131,809132,198132,585
Lower variant122,273122,605122,883123,150123,410123,665123,917124,168124,417124,664124,912125,158125,400125,634125,859126,074126,276126,465126,640126,802126,951127,083127,205127,314127,410127,496
Higher variant122,273122,605122,987123,382123,796124,232124,694125,185125,705126,252126,830127,437128,065128,701129,341129,988130,636131,286131,935132,587133,240133,894134,555135,222135,894136,574
Zero migration variant122,273122,303122,361122,447122,562122,709122,891123,104123,341123,590123,845124,094124,327124,529124,694124,824124,918124,971124,982124,957124,901124,813124,702124,569124,421124,266
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.122,273122,587122,916123,256123,610123,982124,375124,790125,230125,688126,162126,644127,131127,617128,099128,578129,052129,520129,980130,433130,879131,314131,743132,162132,576132,986
[Collapse]W06000003[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]North Wales[Collapse]ConwyPrincipal projection116,287116,414116,561116,717116,879117,048117,223117,402117,585117,761117,925118,076118,210118,326118,422118,499118,555118,593118,611118,610118,588118,547118,488118,413118,324118,222
Lower variant116,287116,414116,491116,562116,623116,678116,722116,752116,770116,769116,747116,706116,645116,561116,454116,322116,163115,979115,769115,533115,267114,973114,655114,313113,943113,551
Higher variant116,287116,414116,600116,801117,014117,243117,485117,741118,008118,279118,554118,836119,117119,389119,651119,902120,140120,369120,587120,794120,989121,176121,358121,538121,713121,889
Zero migration variant116,287115,910115,558115,223114,904114,602114,316114,045113,792113,547113,306113,071112,837112,601112,366112,129111,887111,640111,388111,129110,860110,582110,295110,000109,698109,391
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.116,287116,413116,560116,717116,881117,054117,232117,415117,603117,785117,956118,114118,255118,377118,481118,566118,629118,674118,700118,706118,692118,660118,609118,544118,465118,374
[Collapse]W06000004[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]North Wales[Collapse]DenbighshirePrincipal projection94,79194,95995,14495,33695,53095,72995,93196,13196,32896,51796,69096,84796,98497,10297,19997,27597,33397,37697,40197,41497,41597,40497,38997,36997,34797,326
Lower variant94,79194,95995,08595,20495,31195,40995,49495,56295,61195,64195,64895,63495,59895,54195,45995,35295,22395,07494,90194,71194,50294,27494,03693,78893,52893,259
Higher variant94,79194,95995,18095,41395,65595,90996,17196,44296,71696,99097,26497,53897,80798,06698,31098,54098,76098,97199,17199,36799,55899,74899,944100,148100,359100,582
Zero migration variant94,79194,69494,62494,57394,53894,51994,51894,53094,55394,58594,61794,65194,68394,71594,74294,76294,78094,79394,79894,80094,79594,78494,77494,76494,75794,757
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.94,79195,11695,46195,81996,18396,55596,93697,31997,70498,08598,45598,81299,15399,47999,786100,074100,348100,608100,852101,085101,307101,519101,727101,931102,134102,339
[Collapse]W06000005[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]North Wales[Collapse]FlintshirePrincipal projection153,804154,088154,372154,651154,923155,186155,442155,689155,927156,149156,347156,515156,655156,765156,840156,885156,899156,880156,834156,760156,662156,543156,402156,239156,056155,859
Lower variant153,804154,088154,294154,467154,611154,721154,799154,842154,852154,827154,765154,666154,534154,368154,164153,923153,644153,326152,972152,584152,162151,712151,233150,721150,178149,608
Higher variant153,804154,088154,424154,761155,102155,444155,787156,136156,486156,834157,180157,524157,862158,183158,481158,757159,014159,246159,461159,658159,842160,018160,189160,353160,513160,672
Zero migration variant153,804154,123154,440154,750155,054155,348155,636155,918156,196156,465156,718156,951157,171157,376157,561157,728157,874157,999158,105158,192158,259158,308158,338158,343158,326158,291
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.153,804154,138154,474154,807155,135155,457155,773156,084156,388156,678156,946157,186157,398157,581157,732157,851157,939157,994158,021158,020157,994157,946157,877157,782157,668157,540
[Collapse]W06000006[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]North Wales[Collapse]WrexhamPrincipal projection136,714137,318137,927138,536139,143139,751140,358140,965141,572142,172142,756143,327143,884144,425144,952145,465145,963146,453146,932147,396147,850148,295148,728149,150149,566149,976
Lower variant136,714137,318137,851138,359138,844139,308139,745140,161140,552140,919141,259141,578141,879142,160142,421142,662142,881143,084143,268143,428143,570143,693143,797143,881143,947143,994
Higher variant136,714137,318137,977138,642139,317140,001140,693141,398142,112142,833143,560144,300145,047145,793146,536147,276148,013148,752149,490150,224150,960151,699152,442153,192153,949154,714
Zero migration variant136,714136,970137,227137,481137,732137,981138,225138,468138,705138,934139,145139,343139,528139,701139,864140,017140,160140,300140,433140,557140,674140,785140,888140,982141,072141,155
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.136,714137,570138,439139,316140,199141,091141,990142,898143,814144,732145,642146,546147,443148,330149,210150,081150,943151,801152,652153,492154,324155,150155,966156,775157,579158,380
[Collapse]WXX000002[Collapse]Wales[Expand]Mid and South West Wales
[Collapse]W06000023[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]Mid and South West Wales[Collapse]PowysPrincipal projection132,675132,487132,303132,116131,922131,721131,514131,301131,080130,840130,573130,279129,955129,593129,192128,755128,282127,770127,222126,636126,011125,351124,661123,939123,189122,415
Lower variant132,675132,487132,230131,951131,649131,323130,974130,599130,199129,765129,295128,793128,256127,678127,057126,394125,690124,941124,150123,314122,431121,505120,543119,543118,501117,426
Higher variant132,675132,487132,344132,201132,060131,919131,781131,646131,512131,370131,219131,061130,889130,690130,461130,204129,918129,602129,257128,884128,480128,051127,604127,140126,657126,161
Zero migration variant132,675132,399132,138131,891131,657131,435131,228131,038130,865130,701130,541130,389130,240130,088129,930129,764129,587129,398129,193128,969128,721128,448128,154127,835127,493127,131
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.132,675132,869133,072133,275133,476133,674133,872134,067134,258134,434134,587134,715134,816134,882134,910134,904134,863134,785134,670134,520134,331134,106133,852133,568133,255132,919
[Collapse]W06000008[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]Mid and South West Wales[Collapse]CeredigionPrincipal projection75,42575,64075,86476,09276,32476,56376,81277,07177,34377,62477,91278,20578,50078,79579,08779,37779,66279,94480,22280,49980,76881,03281,29281,54981,80282,051
Lower variant75,42575,64075,82876,00976,18676,36076,53476,70776,88277,05677,23077,40477,57777,74677,90978,06578,21478,35478,48778,61478,72978,83478,93279,02579,10779,182
Higher variant75,42575,64075,88576,13576,39576,66576,95077,25177,57077,90578,25878,62979,01279,40379,79680,19380,59180,99081,39181,79582,19882,60183,00883,41983,83184,245
Zero migration variant75,42575,36075,33575,36075,44275,58475,78076,01876,28676,57076,85977,13977,39677,62677,82577,98278,08378,12478,10978,04577,93577,78377,60177,39877,17476,934
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.75,42575,53075,64675,76775,89376,02576,16476,30876,45776,60776,75476,89677,03077,15277,26177,35677,43677,50177,55577,59777,62577,64177,64877,64777,63977,625
[Collapse]W06000009[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]Mid and South West Wales[Collapse]PembrokeshirePrincipal projection123,666123,758123,858123,957124,054124,149124,241124,329124,412124,482124,533124,562124,564124,537124,487124,405124,296124,163124,006123,822123,611123,376123,119122,840122,540122,225
Lower variant123,666123,758123,790123,802123,796123,771123,725123,656123,564123,446123,299123,125122,919122,681122,416122,114121,779121,414121,019120,590120,128119,632119,109118,557117,973117,364
Higher variant123,666123,758123,899124,044124,195124,352124,514124,682124,853125,024125,191125,358125,514125,652125,775125,875125,956126,021126,069126,099126,112126,109126,098126,077126,047126,012
Zero migration variant123,666123,506123,362123,226123,102122,992122,894122,805122,729122,660122,591122,520122,440122,354122,265122,163122,047121,924121,788121,633121,462121,274121,071120,851120,614120,367
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.123,666123,943124,233124,526124,822125,121125,421125,720126,018126,307126,578126,830127,056127,256127,433127,581127,703127,804127,881127,933127,961127,966127,951127,917127,864127,798
[Collapse]W06000010[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]Mid and South West Wales[Collapse]CarmarthenshirePrincipal projection184,898185,181185,485185,796186,110186,428186,752187,079187,405187,720188,015188,284188,524188,732188,907189,049189,160189,243189,295189,317189,309189,274189,215189,131189,026188,902
Lower variant184,898185,181185,380185,558185,716185,852185,967186,057186,118186,146186,140186,099186,024185,912185,758185,564185,330185,057184,745184,390183,993183,558183,089182,586182,044181,468
Higher variant184,898185,181185,547185,926186,322186,734187,162187,608188,066188,529188,999189,474189,946190,403190,840191,258191,659192,043192,410192,760193,094193,416193,735194,050194,358194,664
Zero migration variant184,898184,635184,402184,186183,985183,800183,634183,485183,349183,219183,088182,949182,799182,634182,451182,249182,027181,787181,525181,238180,928180,594180,241179,865179,469179,057
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.184,898185,604186,342187,096187,864188,646189,444190,254191,071191,886192,687193,467194,223194,952195,650196,318196,957197,569198,152198,706199,231199,729200,205200,658201,091201,507
[Collapse]W06000011[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]Mid and South West Wales[Collapse]SwanseaPrincipal projection241,297242,157243,046243,951244,867245,801246,752247,720248,710249,706250,696251,677252,639253,574254,485255,374256,239257,078257,893258,685259,452260,194260,914261,611262,286262,944
Lower variant241,297242,157242,919243,658244,376245,075245,752246,408247,047247,661248,251248,818249,358249,866250,344250,791251,202251,579251,921252,228252,497252,730252,929253,096253,222253,314
Higher variant241,297242,157243,126244,120245,143246,199247,287248,414249,579250,772251,994253,249254,519255,783257,040258,291259,533260,765261,987263,202264,409265,611266,813268,019269,221270,426
Zero migration variant241,297241,445241,644241,883242,158242,470242,810243,172243,552243,924244,270244,579244,836245,028245,153245,210245,196245,113244,964244,753244,487244,170243,808243,409242,975242,515
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.241,297242,269243,281244,318245,379246,470247,588248,737249,921251,123252,332253,542254,743255,927257,095258,249259,385260,501261,597262,674263,729264,761265,772266,763267,733268,687
[Collapse]W06000012[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]Mid and South West Wales[Collapse]Neath Port TalbotPrincipal projection140,490140,679140,879141,083141,284141,486141,688141,890142,093142,288142,469142,635142,779142,900142,996143,068143,117143,146143,156143,143143,111143,063142,997142,912142,814142,704
Lower variant140,490140,679140,802140,907140,991141,054141,097141,117141,116141,090141,041140,969140,873140,750140,597140,414140,203139,964139,699139,404139,080138,732138,359137,959137,532137,081
Higher variant140,490140,679140,929141,191141,460141,738142,026142,325142,633142,947143,268143,597143,925144,243144,546144,834145,110145,374145,628145,870146,103146,332146,559146,784147,008147,234
Zero migration variant140,490140,482140,478140,476140,468140,459140,449140,440140,433140,421140,401140,371140,328140,269140,191140,095139,982139,856139,714139,552139,371139,176138,963138,731138,483138,221
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.140,490140,759141,040141,327141,613141,901142,192142,485142,781143,070143,348143,611143,856144,078144,277144,453144,608144,744144,862144,959145,038145,101145,148145,178145,195145,201
[Collapse]WXX000003[Collapse]Wales[Expand]South East Wales
[Collapse]W06000013[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]South East Wales[Collapse]BridgendPrincipal projection141,214141,622142,038142,450142,862143,272143,683144,093144,497144,892145,271145,626145,959146,265146,544146,797147,028147,240147,432147,605147,758147,889148,005148,104148,189148,263
Lower variant141,214141,622141,959142,272142,563142,833143,080143,302143,496143,664143,804143,912143,994144,045144,065144,053144,012143,945143,852143,731143,581143,401143,197142,967142,710142,428
Higher variant141,214141,622142,088142,558143,038143,525144,023144,531145,044145,561146,082146,606147,127147,634148,124148,599149,063149,517149,962150,399150,828151,248151,668152,088152,507152,929
Zero migration variant141,214141,255141,305141,359141,419141,481141,546141,614141,682141,747141,802141,841141,869141,881141,875141,850141,813141,765141,705141,632141,543141,434141,310141,171141,017140,850
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.141,214141,761142,317142,874143,433143,994144,557145,120145,680146,233146,769147,282147,772148,236148,671149,080149,466149,833150,179150,504150,810151,094151,363151,614151,852152,079
[Collapse]W06000014[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]South East Wales[Collapse]Vale of GlamorganPrincipal projection127,685127,833127,985128,133128,280128,424128,565128,702128,836128,958129,067129,163129,240129,295129,325129,331129,314129,274129,209129,119129,006128,871128,715128,539128,344128,135
Lower variant127,685127,833127,917127,978128,019128,039128,037128,012127,964127,891127,796127,681127,544127,381127,190126,969126,721126,443126,135125,795125,424125,024124,598124,145123,661123,154
Higher variant127,685127,833128,026128,222128,425128,632128,843129,061129,283129,505129,733129,968130,202130,425130,632130,824131,002131,162131,306131,434131,546131,647131,740131,826131,904131,980
Zero migration variant127,685127,767127,855127,948128,047128,153128,265128,382128,507128,636128,766128,900129,033129,162129,287129,403129,510129,606129,687129,750129,791129,811129,808129,782129,734129,667
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.127,685128,059128,442128,828129,219129,613130,012130,414130,819131,221131,616132,004132,377132,733133,067133,381133,674133,945134,192134,416134,616134,796134,955135,094135,215135,324
[Collapse]W06000015[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]South East Wales[Collapse]CardiffPrincipal projection354,294357,353360,491363,693366,959370,299373,717377,217380,806384,465388,172391,915395,679399,451403,227407,005410,781414,557418,330422,096425,858429,615433,371437,129440,893444,668
Lower variant354,294357,353360,299363,236366,169369,100372,032374,971377,921380,882383,852386,832389,821392,808395,788398,756401,708404,642407,557410,449413,318416,166418,998421,814424,612427,392
Higher variant354,294357,353360,619363,970367,415370,957374,601378,365382,247386,238390,345394,568398,881403,241407,633412,053416,498420,962425,445429,947434,473439,029443,624448,264452,949457,684
Zero migration variant354,294356,237358,297360,473362,756365,141367,612370,151372,741375,349377,931380,448382,852385,094387,144388,983390,601391,996393,172394,155394,983395,683396,280396,799397,271397,723
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.354,294357,827361,457365,172368,970372,863376,854380,948385,152389,445393,805398,219402,668407,137411,620416,112420,608425,107429,604434,095438,579443,056447,531452,005456,482460,969
[Collapse]W06000016[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]South East Wales[Collapse]Rhondda Cynon TafPrincipal projection236,888237,240237,626238,042238,482238,945239,431239,936240,455240,977241,486241,977242,441242,878243,289243,674244,037244,379244,701245,003245,290245,561245,812246,045246,267246,481
Lower variant236,888237,240237,492237,733237,963238,177238,372238,542238,686238,801238,883238,933238,950238,935238,887238,805238,690238,543238,366238,157237,920237,656237,359237,033236,678236,295
Higher variant236,888237,240237,718238,238238,803239,407240,050240,734241,451242,194242,963243,759244,566245,368246,163246,950247,732248,507249,278250,047250,817251,593252,373253,162253,962254,777
Zero migration variant236,888237,166237,471237,794238,131238,477238,832239,188239,541239,879240,187240,461240,693240,883241,036241,154241,240241,297241,327241,332241,318241,285241,229241,153241,063240,962
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.236,888237,233237,610238,012238,435238,877239,339239,816240,303240,789241,260241,710242,131242,522242,887243,226243,541243,835244,109244,363244,602244,824245,025245,208245,379245,541
[Collapse]W06000024[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]South East Wales[Collapse]Merthyr TydfilPrincipal projection59,06559,10159,13959,18059,21959,25459,28759,31359,33259,34359,34359,33259,30859,26959,22059,16159,09159,01158,92158,82358,71758,60158,47658,34458,20758,062
Lower variant59,06559,10159,10859,10759,09659,07259,03758,98558,91758,83458,73858,62758,50258,36358,21258,04957,87357,68457,48357,27157,04756,81056,56056,30156,03055,747
Higher variant59,06559,10159,16259,22959,29959,36859,43959,50759,57359,63559,69559,75359,80759,85159,88859,92059,94559,96359,97559,98459,98759,98659,98259,97859,97359,966
Zero migration variant59,06559,15159,23759,32559,41159,49259,57159,64259,70859,76759,81859,85959,88959,90759,91859,92259,91959,90959,89059,86859,84059,80459,76159,71559,66659,611
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.59,06559,18159,30359,42959,55559,68159,80759,92860,04660,15760,26160,35560,43760,50760,56860,62060,66260,69660,72160,73960,75060,75260,74660,73560,72060,699
[Collapse]W06000018[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]South East Wales[Collapse]CaerphillyPrincipal projection179,941180,206180,481180,754181,027181,296181,558181,812182,057182,287182,489182,661182,799182,905182,977183,015183,019182,994182,943182,866182,763182,636182,485182,314182,126181,924
Lower variant179,941180,206180,384180,529180,646180,731180,776180,783180,750180,680180,568180,418180,229180,005179,742179,439179,095178,713178,297177,847177,362176,843176,291175,710175,098174,457
Higher variant179,941180,206180,548180,898181,261181,633182,008182,391182,777183,166183,554183,945184,330184,698185,047185,374185,679185,966186,237186,495186,740186,976187,206187,435187,665187,897
Zero migration variant179,941180,310180,681181,044181,401181,751182,087182,413182,730183,034183,316183,573183,803184,010184,193184,349184,480184,591184,685184,761184,817184,851184,862184,853184,827184,786
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.179,941180,298180,666181,034181,401181,767182,126182,478182,822183,153183,457183,732183,974184,184184,362184,507184,618184,699184,754184,783184,785184,762184,713184,643184,555184,453
[Collapse]W06000019[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]South East Wales[Collapse]Blaenau GwentPrincipal projection69,67469,60969,54969,49269,43369,37469,31469,25269,18469,10969,02268,92268,80768,67668,53268,37468,20368,01967,82467,61967,40567,18666,96066,73066,49666,258
Lower variant69,67469,60969,51069,40369,28569,15569,01368,85868,68568,49768,29368,07367,83867,58567,31767,03366,73466,41966,09165,74965,39565,03364,66064,28063,88963,489
Higher variant69,67469,60969,57569,54969,52769,50969,49469,48369,47169,45769,44269,42769,40669,37569,33669,28669,22969,16269,08869,00868,92468,84168,75868,67968,60168,527
Zero migration variant69,67469,72169,77269,82869,88369,93969,99570,05070,10070,14470,17770,19970,20870,20370,18670,15770,11870,06570,00469,93369,85569,77369,68769,59669,50269,404
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.69,67469,68669,70369,72569,74769,76869,78869,80869,82169,82869,82369,80569,77369,72469,66269,58669,49869,39669,28369,16069,02868,89268,74968,60268,45268,298
[Collapse]W06000020[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]South East Wales[Collapse]TorfaenPrincipal projection91,60991,70391,79991,89691,99192,08792,18292,27392,35692,42992,48492,52092,53892,53392,51092,46392,39992,31892,22192,10991,98691,85391,70991,55791,39691,229
Lower variant91,60991,70391,74991,78091,79491,79691,78291,74791,69191,61491,51391,38991,24591,07790,89090,67590,44190,18489,90889,61389,30188,97488,63288,27787,90587,519
Higher variant91,60991,70391,83391,96892,10892,25692,40892,56392,71792,86993,01793,16193,30193,42593,53993,63493,71993,79193,85493,90793,95694,00394,04894,09594,14394,193
Zero migration variant91,60991,74991,89592,04492,19692,35492,51692,67892,84092,99893,14693,28293,40893,51893,61893,69993,76993,82793,87493,91093,93793,95693,96693,96993,96293,950
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.91,60991,73391,86291,99592,12992,26792,40892,54892,68392,81192,92493,02093,10093,15893,20193,22093,22393,21093,18293,14093,08893,02692,95492,87592,78992,699
[Collapse]W06000021[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]South East Wales[Collapse]MonmouthshirePrincipal projection92,33692,48792,63992,78792,93193,07093,20993,34193,46893,58893,69493,78493,85493,90193,92593,92593,90093,84793,76693,65793,52093,35693,16692,95092,71192,452
Lower variant92,33692,48792,59392,68392,75792,81592,86192,88892,89892,89092,86292,81392,74292,64492,52092,36692,18491,97091,72291,44291,12690,77890,39989,98889,54689,076
Higher variant92,33692,48792,66592,84193,01893,19693,37793,56093,74393,92694,10694,28594,45594,61094,74894,86794,96795,04595,10195,13695,14895,14195,11795,07795,02194,953
Zero migration variant92,33692,16591,99791,83291,67091,51391,36691,22691,09690,97790,86390,75890,65890,55990,45990,35890,25090,13390,00289,85489,68589,49489,28089,04188,77888,492
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.92,33692,45292,57392,69192,80892,92393,04093,15593,26793,37593,47293,55593,62193,66793,69093,69193,66993,62193,54593,44293,31093,15492,97292,76492,53492,286
[Collapse]W06000022[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]South East Wales[Collapse]NewportPrincipal projection146,841147,284147,749148,234148,729149,243149,770150,308150,856151,408151,952152,486153,005153,504153,987154,455154,910155,354155,785156,204156,610157,005157,391157,769158,134158,492
Lower variant146,841147,284147,666148,039148,398148,748149,083149,401149,701149,984150,247150,491150,718150,922151,106151,270151,417151,546151,657151,748151,819151,874151,911151,933151,931151,909
Higher variant146,841147,284147,805148,353148,924149,523150,146150,794151,462152,149152,852153,575154,307155,033155,753156,468157,182157,892158,599159,304160,007160,712161,423162,143162,864163,593
Zero migration variant146,841147,294147,762148,245148,731149,230149,736150,245150,757151,267151,764152,245152,706153,143153,560153,957154,339154,706155,058155,394155,715156,023156,320156,606156,877157,136
Ten year average migration variantA minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.146,841147,419148,030148,669149,329150,018150,730151,463152,216152,983153,751154,519155,279156,026156,764157,492158,214158,928159,634160,330161,016161,694162,365163,030163,684164,334

Metadata

Data licensing

You may use and re-use this data free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government License - see http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence

Title

2014-based local authority population projections for Wales, 2014 to 2039

Last update

September 2016 September 2016

Next update

No longer updated. This will be replaced by a future projection.

Publishing organisation

Welsh Government

Source 2

2014-based projections for local authorities in Wales, Welsh Government

Contact email

stats.popcensus@gov.wales

Designation

National Statistics

Lowest level of geographical disaggregation

Local authorities

Geographical coverage

Local authorities

Languages covered

English and Welsh

General description

This dataset provides population projections for local authorities in Wales by gender, single year of age and each year from the base year of 2014, through the projection period to 2039. This is the fourth set of population projections published for the 22 local authorities in Wales.
Note that the projections become increasingly uncertain the further we try to look into the future.
Also note that these figures differ from the Wales data in the national population projections produced by the Office for National Statistics because the key aim of the local authority population projections is to produce robust local authority population projections for Wales, which reflect local trends in recent years while the main purpose of the national projections is to produce robust population projections for Wales which reflect national trends in recent years.
The national projections and the local authority projections are different for two main reasons:
1. The methodology used to produce assumptions in the local authority projections are different to those used in the national projections. Some of these are due to slightly different data sources.
Also, although one set of assumptions may fit well for a national trend, using similar assumptions may not always produce feasible results for all local authority areas because of the different nature and trends between local authorities.
2. The geographical level for which the assumptions are based and applied is also important. For example, it is not appropriate to sum local rates (eg fertility) to derive a national rate, and therefore a model operating at different geographic levels (but using rates) will produce different results for the different geographic levels.

Data collection and calculation

Population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population, and are based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends. Projections only indicate what may happen should the recent trends continue. Projections done in this way do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies on future population levels, distribution and change.
The 2014 population estimates have been used as the base for the local authority projections. The projected population is for 30 June each year. The base population estimates are based on the usually resident population. Usual residents away from home temporarily are included, but visitors are excluded. Students are counted at their term-time address. It should also be noted that the UN definition of an international migrant is used - those changing country of residence for a period of at least 12 months. Short-term migrants (eg migrant workers from Eastern European countries) are not counted in the population estimates and hence are not included in the population projections.
The projections are based on an assumed pattern of migration based on projecting forward the average migration patterns over the last five years.
Four migration variants are also published covering different migration scenarios, ranging from a zero migration estimate, to a low estimate, to a high estimate. A further estimate based on projecting forward the average migration patterns over the last ten years is also available (the variants are in a separate dataset in the same area of StatsWales).

Frequency of publication

Every two to four years

Data reference periods

Data are published for the period 2014 to 2039.

Users, uses and context

See the local authority population projection statistical release in weblinks.

Rounding applied

Data are rounded independently to the nearest whole number and may not add exactly.

Revisions information

No revisions have been made to the data published for 2014. These data replaced the 2011 local authority population projections for Wales as the formal estimates of population growth.

Keywords

Population projections; population growth; migration; natural change; births; deaths

Statistical quality

See the local authority population projection statistical release in weblinks.