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Data Provider: Welsh Government National Statistics Population projections by local authority, variant and year

Archived (English only) – No longer updated.

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VariantFour alternative variations on the principal population projections are made, one based on an assumed high level of migration, one on an assumed  low level of migration, one with zero migration and one based on an average of the last ten years of migration (as opposed to five years used in the calculation of the principal projection).[Filter]
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[Collapse]Wales[Collapse]Isle of AngleseyLower variant69,91369,96369,98669,98769,97469,95169,92369,88169,82369,75269,66569,56369,44369,30069,13568,95168,74868,52568,28368,02067,74067,44667,14066,82166,48966,147
Higher variant69,91369,96370,03370,11570,20270,28870,37370,44670,50570,55170,58270,59970,60070,58470,55370,51170,45770,39470,32170,23970,15270,06469,97869,89269,81069,733
Zero migration variant69,91369,92269,93869,95969,98170,00370,02870,04870,06070,06570,06070,04970,02969,99769,95369,89969,83469,76069,68069,59369,50069,40569,30769,20769,10569,002
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.69,91370,08870,26770,44770,62270,79370,95771,10871,24271,35871,45671,53571,59371,62871,64171,63671,61371,57571,52371,45871,38471,30471,22071,13271,04070,947
[Collapse]GwyneddLower variant121,523121,803122,054122,287122,516122,755123,007123,271123,548123,840124,151124,477124,814125,160125,510125,863126,213126,554126,879127,185127,471127,736127,978128,194128,384128,559
Higher variant121,523121,803122,127122,486122,878123,297123,741124,207124,693125,201125,730126,278126,845127,433128,035128,652129,279129,909130,537131,161131,782132,398133,010133,613134,210134,809
Zero migration variant121,523121,416121,336121,286121,265121,272121,303121,348121,399121,452121,504121,547121,570121,567121,532121,466121,366121,227121,048120,831120,582120,305120,005119,680119,334118,979
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.121,523121,874122,247122,641123,056123,493123,948124,421124,907125,407125,918126,437126,961127,486128,009128,527129,036129,532130,015130,483130,934131,371131,792132,195132,580132,958
[Collapse]ConwyLower variant115,326115,461115,554115,620115,672115,717115,754115,781115,796115,797115,783115,750115,695115,613115,504115,365115,195114,994114,763114,501114,204113,875113,512113,119112,695112,242
Higher variant115,326115,461115,626115,814116,018116,230116,443116,650116,848117,036117,210117,368117,508117,633117,741117,833117,907117,966118,011118,044118,063118,069118,066118,056118,041118,022
Zero migration variant115,326115,054114,797114,560114,344114,144113,953113,771113,593113,416113,237113,056112,870112,677112,476112,268112,049111,822111,590111,352111,104110,848110,582110,307110,024109,734
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.115,326115,669116,020116,378116,743117,109117,470117,824118,165118,490118,795119,080119,339119,572119,777119,955120,105120,231120,336120,422120,485120,530120,554120,562120,554120,530
[Collapse]DenbighshireLower variant93,91994,30994,66795,00295,32795,65195,97296,28696,59296,88997,17497,44697,69997,93198,14198,32698,48598,61598,71798,79498,84498,86698,86598,83998,78998,723
Higher variant93,91994,30994,73395,18195,65096,13296,61797,10197,57998,05098,50998,95699,38899,805100,210100,600100,976101,336101,682102,018102,345102,664102,980103,292103,602103,920
Zero migration variant93,91993,91093,91993,94193,98194,03294,09094,15294,21694,27794,33394,38294,41994,44394,45794,45894,44694,42194,38394,33694,27994,20994,13494,04993,95693,863
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.93,91994,50295,09795,69896,30896,92197,53198,13398,72599,30099,856100,391100,901101,384101,842102,273102,678103,058103,417103,757104,081104,389104,684104,966105,235105,501
[Collapse]FlintshireLower variant152,666153,038153,335153,582153,792153,980154,145154,283154,391154,473154,528154,552154,543154,493154,403154,271154,099153,884153,624153,322152,977152,594152,172151,713151,220150,692
Higher variant152,666153,038153,435153,849154,269154,685155,087155,466155,818156,144156,443156,712156,954157,169157,356157,517157,655157,770157,860157,930157,982158,019158,045158,061158,074158,081
Zero migration variant152,666153,054153,430153,801154,163154,512154,844155,155155,442155,706155,947156,163156,355156,519156,658156,770156,857156,921156,962156,983156,980156,955156,907156,836156,745156,629
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.152,666153,055153,438153,817154,187154,543154,880155,190155,469155,715155,927156,102156,238156,332156,382156,390156,359156,291156,187156,052155,885155,691155,472155,228154,963154,676
[Collapse]WrexhamLower variant135,070136,337137,547138,716139,861140,994142,112143,214144,300145,370146,426147,459148,471149,457150,421151,360152,274153,165154,030154,870155,686156,478157,241157,980158,697159,395
Higher variant135,070136,337137,649138,992140,354141,722143,086144,438145,777147,101148,410149,698150,971152,232153,485154,731155,971157,207158,439159,668160,900162,132163,366164,606165,856167,119
Zero migration variant135,070135,544136,016136,480136,935137,373137,786138,173138,532138,859139,158139,423139,659139,866140,049140,211140,352140,478140,593140,696140,791140,876140,950141,015141,073141,126
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.135,070136,231137,402138,577139,753140,924142,081143,219144,339145,434146,506147,548148,564149,552150,516151,458152,376153,278154,167155,044155,913156,773157,622158,465159,305160,143
[Collapse]PowysLower variant133,071133,382133,642133,865134,066134,251134,425134,585134,725134,851134,957135,037135,085135,095135,066134,994134,876134,709134,493134,222133,896133,520133,092132,605132,066131,482
Higher variant133,071133,382133,715134,061134,419134,777135,133135,482135,817136,141136,448136,732136,992137,225137,433137,611137,759137,876137,960138,011138,029138,020137,982137,913137,821137,712
Zero migration variant133,071132,889132,713132,547132,397132,255132,120131,994131,870131,751131,632131,509131,380131,242131,095130,934130,753130,555130,337130,095129,826129,533129,211128,856128,472128,064
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.133,071133,707134,343134,975135,605136,228136,841137,442138,022138,582139,117139,620140,088140,515140,902141,247141,548141,808142,027142,205142,341142,441142,504142,525142,510142,466
[Collapse]CeredigionLower variant75,29375,44675,57475,69175,80475,91976,03876,16276,29276,43276,57476,72176,86777,01077,14577,26777,37677,46977,54377,59977,63177,64577,63977,61577,57377,515
Higher variant75,29375,44675,61475,79975,99976,21076,43176,66376,90677,16177,42177,68777,95778,22978,49978,76479,02379,27379,51379,74479,96380,17380,37480,56880,75580,938
Zero migration variant75,29375,22675,18375,18175,22575,31875,45275,62875,84376,08876,33776,57176,77976,95677,09777,18977,22877,21377,15077,04376,88776,69176,45876,19975,91875,622
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.75,29375,50875,72675,95376,18676,42676,66976,91877,17177,42977,68377,93378,17678,40978,62978,83279,01779,18579,33679,47279,58779,68979,77579,84979,91079,961
[Collapse]PembrokeshireLower variant122,613122,933123,209123,454123,680123,896124,099124,289124,465124,624124,763124,880124,970125,024125,047125,034124,985124,902124,781124,625124,435124,212123,953123,660123,336122,983
Higher variant122,613122,933123,289123,670124,068124,472124,872125,263125,643126,008126,353126,677126,979127,254127,509127,740127,949128,139128,308128,461128,600128,728128,841128,946129,046129,144
Zero migration variant122,613122,580122,558122,550122,559122,579122,602122,626122,650122,669122,680122,680122,668122,639122,596122,534122,452122,354122,239122,108121,962121,800121,620121,422121,210120,986
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.122,613123,103123,598124,094124,587125,073125,544125,997126,431126,838127,216127,563127,876128,149128,386128,588128,753128,890128,998129,080129,140129,179129,195129,190129,168129,130
[Collapse]CarmarthenshireLower variant183,961184,888185,766186,613187,445188,277189,105189,926190,734191,529192,309193,068193,796194,491195,144195,758196,326196,849197,325197,754198,136198,470198,759199,003199,207199,378
Higher variant183,961184,888185,885186,935188,027189,143190,271191,400192,523193,637194,739195,822196,885197,932198,956199,961200,944201,906202,847203,770204,680205,574206,458207,336208,212209,094
Zero migration variant183,961183,859183,784183,733183,702183,686183,673183,662183,646183,620183,582183,527183,449183,348183,218183,061182,871182,652182,409182,140181,847181,527181,182180,814180,426180,023
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.183,961185,241186,551187,883189,232190,591191,946193,293194,623195,929197,209198,455199,663200,830201,953203,033204,068205,063206,024206,952207,851208,719209,561210,377211,174211,955
[Collapse]SwanseaLower variant238,691239,936241,111242,247243,367244,495245,628246,759247,886249,015250,144251,271252,385253,474254,537255,569256,565257,525258,443259,314260,138260,920261,657262,346262,992263,595
Higher variant238,691239,936241,271242,678244,142245,646247,175248,714250,258251,807253,358254,910256,460258,005259,544261,075262,594264,102265,594267,071268,535269,991271,439272,878274,314275,752
Zero migration variant238,691239,022239,392239,802240,245240,713241,187241,652242,093242,504242,873243,193243,451243,632243,733243,751243,684243,542243,334243,062242,734242,362241,949241,500241,023240,523
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.238,691240,049241,454242,904244,394245,919247,466249,026250,591252,158253,723255,282256,828258,347259,839261,300262,725264,121265,491266,832268,147269,442270,713271,962273,191274,404
[Collapse]Neath Port TalbotLower variant139,880140,081140,235140,360140,471140,577140,677140,760140,827140,877140,909140,918140,905140,865140,798140,701140,574140,415140,223140,000139,748139,467139,159138,822138,460138,074
Higher variant139,880140,081140,333140,626140,947141,283141,621141,950142,265142,564142,846143,107143,351143,581143,797143,999144,186144,358144,515144,662144,801144,937145,071145,205145,344145,488
Zero migration variant139,880139,890139,913139,950139,998140,050140,100140,136140,157140,161140,146140,111140,056139,982139,887139,770139,632139,472139,294139,098138,888138,665138,429138,180137,921137,652
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.139,880140,393140,928141,480142,047142,621143,192143,750144,291144,811145,309145,780146,227146,647147,041147,409147,749148,064148,358148,634148,896149,147149,386149,616149,839150,055
[Collapse]BridgendLower variant139,410140,141140,796141,401141,972142,524143,058143,565144,050144,511144,943145,344145,711146,043146,334146,580146,786146,950147,073147,155147,199147,211147,192147,141147,056146,937
Higher variant139,410140,141140,898141,675142,461143,247144,024144,779145,516146,230146,916147,573148,202148,809149,387149,936150,461150,961151,438151,897152,343152,783153,219153,656154,092154,527
Zero migration variant139,410139,696139,981140,272140,565140,856141,136141,400141,650141,881142,088142,269142,426142,561142,668142,746142,797142,821142,827142,813142,783142,740142,686142,620142,542142,449
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.139,410140,240141,072141,906142,740143,570144,388145,186145,965146,717147,439148,125148,776149,391149,966150,498150,993151,452151,882152,285152,668153,034153,389153,732154,062154,378
[Collapse]The Vale of GlamorganLower variant126,679127,138127,541127,905128,243128,566128,877129,175129,459129,729129,984130,223130,444130,646130,828130,983131,110131,206131,269131,297131,284131,231131,141131,013130,851130,653
Higher variant126,679127,138127,620128,117128,622129,127129,627130,119130,600131,068131,522131,961132,387132,804133,211133,606133,986134,350134,696135,024135,331135,619135,889136,147136,395136,632
Zero migration variant126,679126,920127,156127,392127,627127,859128,081128,294128,496128,686128,863129,029129,183129,328129,464129,586129,689129,776129,846129,897129,921129,919129,890129,836129,757129,651
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.126,679127,383128,087128,791129,493130,190130,878131,556132,219132,865133,490134,094134,676135,235135,771136,281136,762137,216137,645138,048138,421138,768139,089139,388139,668139,926
[Collapse]CardiffLower variant345,442349,536353,526357,479361,438365,433369,464373,527377,625381,770385,973390,225394,517398,842403,185407,533411,875416,194420,479424,719428,911433,046437,129441,158445,133449,062
Higher variant345,442349,536353,802358,221362,767367,401372,099376,842381,627386,458391,340396,268401,246406,281411,362416,478421,618426,769431,922437,076442,230447,382452,537457,697462,869468,060
Zero migration variant345,442347,578349,782352,072354,436356,843359,265361,675364,051366,376368,637370,798372,821374,670376,315377,742378,946379,934380,731381,357381,846382,219382,505382,724382,896383,041
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.345,442349,226353,099357,072361,141365,283369,479373,721378,003382,324386,687391,084395,504399,940404,377408,803413,204417,581421,937426,267430,573434,851439,106443,339447,553451,756
[Collapse]Rhondda, Cynon, TafLower variant234,373234,648234,812234,901234,947234,973234,977234,956234,905234,825234,717234,574234,391234,167233,896233,581233,220232,815232,365231,868231,329230,745230,117229,448228,744228,003
Higher variant234,373234,648234,992235,391235,826236,275236,721237,150237,556237,935238,287238,605238,894239,162239,405239,628239,832240,020240,192240,352240,508240,659240,808240,961241,125241,299
Zero migration variant234,373234,876235,393235,924236,463236,999237,519238,014238,476238,894239,271239,597239,873240,098240,271240,394240,469240,506240,511240,487240,440240,373240,285240,181240,067239,941
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.234,373235,084235,822236,584237,368238,162238,952239,731240,488241,215241,912242,571243,190243,768244,303244,795245,246245,664246,055246,420246,767247,095247,406247,703247,994248,276
[Collapse]Merthyr TydfilLower variant58,85159,07959,28659,47959,66359,84460,02060,18560,34060,48560,61560,72960,82760,90960,97561,02361,05261,06661,06261,04161,00360,94960,88260,80060,70560,596
Higher variant58,85159,07959,33259,60459,89060,18060,46960,75061,02061,28161,52661,75561,96862,17062,36162,54062,70762,86463,01363,15263,28563,41363,53963,66363,78763,912
Zero migration variant58,85159,00259,15859,31859,48159,64159,79359,93360,05960,17360,26860,34560,40460,44760,47660,48960,48860,47660,45560,42560,38760,34260,29460,24060,18260,120
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.58,85158,97159,09959,23359,37059,50459,63259,74759,84859,93359,99860,04160,06360,06660,05160,01759,96459,89659,81659,72459,62259,51159,39559,27259,14359,010
[Collapse]CaerphillyLower variant178,782179,212179,561179,854180,108180,338180,542180,717180,858180,969181,043181,081181,081181,036180,945180,813180,638180,420180,155179,843179,486179,081178,631178,136177,595177,011
Higher variant178,782179,212179,693180,212180,751181,292181,820182,324182,798183,241183,647184,018184,357184,665184,945185,201185,435185,647185,836186,002186,153186,285186,404186,512186,612186,708
Zero migration variant178,782179,241179,706180,175180,644181,103181,540181,952182,332182,677182,984183,254183,488183,684183,842183,969184,066184,136184,182184,201184,199184,172184,123184,051183,958183,844
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.178,782179,292179,811180,336180,860181,374181,867182,332182,763183,154183,502183,805184,064184,276184,441184,566184,649184,696184,711184,692184,647184,572184,472184,348184,200184,032
[Collapse]Blaenau GwentLower variant69,81269,68469,54269,38869,23369,07668,91968,75568,58368,40268,21068,00467,78067,53867,27766,99966,70166,38466,04865,69265,31864,92664,51664,09363,65863,211
Higher variant69,81269,68469,59169,52269,47569,43669,40369,36469,31969,26569,19969,11969,02468,91568,79368,66068,51568,35868,19168,01367,82767,63367,43367,23367,03366,836
Zero migration variant69,81269,76969,74369,72969,72769,72969,73469,73369,72469,70569,67369,62669,56469,48669,39469,28669,16469,02768,87868,71868,54568,36368,17167,97367,77067,565
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.69,81269,71169,62569,54969,48369,41869,35269,27769,19269,09268,97668,84168,68668,51068,31468,10067,86867,61867,35467,07566,78266,47866,16365,84165,51365,181
[Collapse]TorfaenLower variant91,19091,32691,42891,51091,58291,65091,71191,76191,80191,83191,84791,84391,82191,77491,70691,61491,49891,35991,19391,00290,78990,55490,30090,02789,73989,433
Higher variant91,19091,32691,49791,69891,92192,15392,38792,61392,83293,03993,23193,40293,55993,69793,82093,92894,02394,10494,16994,22294,26894,30994,34794,38594,42894,475
Zero migration variant91,19091,37691,57491,78892,01392,24392,47092,69092,90393,10593,29393,46193,61493,74393,85593,94794,02094,07694,11494,13794,14694,14394,13194,10894,08194,044
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.91,19091,29891,41891,54991,68791,82791,96092,08392,19292,28392,35492,39792,41792,40792,37292,31092,22392,11491,98291,83291,66691,48791,29791,09890,89390,680
[Collapse]MonmouthshireLower variant91,50891,62491,70491,75591,78891,81191,82191,82291,81391,79591,76791,72691,67091,59491,49691,37591,22891,05490,84790,60890,33390,02389,67689,29388,87788,433
Higher variant91,50891,62491,75091,87792,00692,13492,25592,37292,48292,58592,68092,76692,84192,90392,95192,98593,00493,00592,98692,94792,88592,80492,70092,57692,43792,285
Zero migration variant91,50891,42991,34791,26291,18091,10191,02190,94490,86990,79590,72590,66090,59990,53890,47690,41390,34490,26690,17790,06989,94089,78989,61289,40889,17988,928
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.91,50891,80592,09992,38592,66692,94293,20893,46693,71393,94894,17094,37794,56594,73194,87594,99695,09295,16495,21095,23195,22395,18895,12595,03494,92094,787
[Collapse]NewportLower variant145,785146,690147,551148,391149,229150,079150,943151,813152,693153,582154,474155,368156,263157,150158,027158,889159,729160,551161,353162,135162,894163,628164,337165,022165,684166,330
Higher variant145,785146,690147,671148,718149,819150,956152,121153,300154,493155,696156,900158,105159,314160,526161,741162,953164,159165,361166,560167,757168,954170,152171,349172,552173,764174,991
Zero migration variant145,785146,400147,028147,667148,315148,964149,607150,235150,849151,443152,009152,548153,060153,540153,991154,409154,793155,152155,493155,818156,127156,422156,701156,970157,227157,479
Ten year average migration variant A minor revision to the ten year average migration model was made in December 2013.145,785146,602147,453148,337149,249150,182151,129152,079153,032153,981154,917155,839156,746157,633158,498159,338160,148160,937161,713162,476163,226163,967164,695165,417166,134166,850

Metadata

Variant 2011-based local authority population projections for Wales, 2011 to 2036

Welsh Government

Last update: September 2013
Was added to StatsWales: September 2013

Next Update: No longer updated.
Will be added to StatsWales: Will be replaced by a future projection

Source: 2011-based projections for local authorities in Wales, Welsh Government
Contact: stats.popcensus@wales.gsi.gov.uk/ ystadegau.poblogaeth@cymru.gsi.gov.uk

This dataset provides variant population projections for local authorities in Wales by gender, single year of age and each year from the base year of 2011, through the projection period to 2036. The principal projections (available in another dataset in the same area of StatsWales) are based on an assumed pattern of migration based on projecting forward the average migration patterns over the last five years. These four migration variants cover different migration scenarios, ranging from a zero migration estimate, to a low estimate, to a high estimate. A further variant is based on projecting forward the average migration patterns over the last ten years (as opposed to the five year average used in the principal projections). This is the third set of population projections published for the 22 local authorities in Wales, but the first set to take into account the results of the 2011 Census.

Population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population, and are based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends. Projections only indicate what may happen should the recent trends continue. Projections done in this way do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies on future population levels, distribution and change.

The 2011 population estimates have been used as the base for the local authority projections. The projected population is for 30 June each year. The base population estimates are based on the usually resident population. Usual residents away from home temporarily are included, but visitors are excluded. Students are counted at their term-time address. It should also be noted that the UN definition of an international migrant is used - those changing country of residence for a period of at least 12 months. Short-term migrants (eg migrant workers from Eastern European countries) are not counted in the population estimates and hence are not included in the population projections.

The principal projections (available in another dataset in the same area of StatsWales) are based on an assumed pattern of migration based on projecting forward the average migration patterns over the last five years.

These four migration variants cover different migration scenarios, ranging from a zero migration estimate, to a low estimate, to a high estimate. A further variant is based on projecting forward the average migration patterns over the last ten years (as opposed to the five year average used in the principal projections).

Data are rounded independently to the nearest whole number and may not add exactly.

Note that the projections become increasingly uncertain the further we try to look into the future.

Also note that these figures differ from the Wales data in the national population projections produced by the Office for National Statistics because the key aim of the local authority population projections is to produce robust local authority population projections for Wales, which reflect local trends in recent years while the main purpose of the national projections is to produce robust population projections for Wales which reflect national trends in recent years.

The national projections and the local authority projections are different for two main reasons:
1. The methodology used to produce assumptions in the local authority projections are different to those used in the national projections. Some of these are due to slightly different data sources.


2. The geographical level for which the assumptions are based and applied is also important. For example, it is not appropriate to sum local rates (eg fertility) to derive a national rate, and therefore a model operating at different geographic levels (but using rates) will produce different results for the different geographic levels.

For further information please see the local authority population projections statistical release: http://wales.gov.uk/statistics-and-research/local-authority-population-projections/?lang=en.

National projections can be found here:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/npp/national-population-projections/2012-based-reference-volume--series-pp2/index.html.


Population projections; growth

Name

POPU5028