Popu5015: 2008-based population projections for the Spatial Plan areas of Wales, 2008 to 2033

Statistical Directorate, Welsh Assembly Government

Last update: 14 Dec 2010
Was added to StatsWales: 14 Dec 2010

Next Update: No longer updated.
Will be added to StatsWales by: Not a regular output

Sources: Small Area Population Estimates, Office for National Statistics; 2008-based Local Authority Population Projections, Welsh Assembly Government
Contact: stats.popcensus@wales.gsi.gov.uk

This dataset provides 2008-based population projections for the six Spatial Plan areas in Wales and the three sub divisions of South East Wales. The starting point for this analysis is the 2008-based local authority principal population projection dataset published by the Statistical Directorate on 27 May 2010. Due to the assumptions involved in producing these figures, they should be considered indicative.

The methodology and assumptions used to produce this dataset are set out in the Statistical Article used to publish the data, available <a href= http://wales.gov.uk/topics/statistics/articles/2008population/?lang=en target=_blank>here</a>.

The population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population, and are based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration. The assumptions are generally based on past trends. Projections done in this way do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies on future population levels, distribution and change. Instead they provide a starting position to illustrate the consequences of recent and current demographic trends, and allow policy makers and service delivery planners an opportunity to respond to this.

The projected population is for 30 June each year, and the 2008 mid year estimates of population have been used as the base population for these projections.

Population estimates and projections are based on the usually resident population. Usual residents away from home temporarily are included, but visitors are excluded, and students are counted at their term-time address. It should also be noted that the United Nations definition of an international migrant is used - those changing country of residence for a period of at least 12 months. Short-term migrants (e.g. those migrant workers from Eastern European countries who arrive and leave within 12 months) are not counted in the population estimates and hence are not included in the population projections.

Figures presented in this dataset for working age and retirement age populations are based on the state pension age for the given year. Current arrangements are that between 2010 and 2020, state pension age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women, to 65 years for both sexes. And between 2024 and 2046, state pension age will increase in three stages from 65 years to 68 years for both sexes. However the government has announced new proposals for increasing State Pension age which, if adopted, mean the female State Pension age will increase more quickly to 65 between April 2016 and November 2018. From December 2018 the State Pension age for both men and women would then start to increase to reach 66 by April 2020. The government is also considering the timetable for future increases to the State Pension age from 66 to 68. However, as any change to the timetable needs the approval of Parliament, the data presented here for persons of working age and retirement age are based on the current arrangements set out above, and not the new proposals.

The migration elements within the projections are made up of two components, as follows.
. Internal (or within-UK) migration refers to the movement of people moving within the UK, for example, from one local authority to another. Each Health Authority holds a register of patients registered with its GPs, called the Patient Register Data System (PRDS). Combining every patient register in England and Wales and comparing with the register from the previous year identifies people who have changed their postcode.
. International Migration refers to the movement of people to or from countries outside the UK. The UN definition of an international migrant is used - those changing country of residence for a period of at least 12 months. International migration movements are estimated by combining data from the International Passenger Survey (IPS), Home Office data on asylum seekers and visitor switches, with estimates of migration between the Republic of Ireland and Wales from the Irish Labour Force Survey.

The 2008-based local authority projections are not subject to planned revisions, and so nor are the Spatial Plan area figures presented here, which are derived from these LA figures. It is, however, possible that the base population (2008 mid-year estimates) will be revised in future, which will also impact on the historic fertility and mortality rates used in developing the LA projections.

The Wales level population projections included here are the sum of the figures for each Welsh local authority, which is the appropriate comparator when comparing with individual Spatial Plan area data. If using Wales level data in isolation, or in comparison to data for other countries, then figures derived at the national level should be used. These can be obtained from the same part of StatsWales that this dataset is in, or via an e-mail to stats.popcensus@wales.gsi.gov.uk.

The data are shown rounded to the nearest whole number, to help users who wish to carry out their own calculations, but it is advisable that to round any results based on these data to the nearest 100 in any further work.

Population projections

Name

Popu5015