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Data Provider: Welsh Government National Statistics Population projections by local authority, variant and year

Archived (English only) – No longer updated.

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[Collapse]Isle of AngleseyLower variant68,79968,86668,94069,02469,11469,20869,30769,40969,51169,61469,71469,80969,89869,97770,04670,10170,14070,16270,16770,15570,12870,08570,02569,950
Higher variant68,79969,17269,53769,89970,25670,60870,95471,29771,63471,96672,29172,60672,91173,20373,48173,74073,98174,20374,40674,59174,76574,92775,07975,221
Zero migration variant68,79968,81368,82968,85168,88168,91768,96069,01069,06669,12869,19169,25669,32269,38669,44569,49669,53469,56169,57369,57169,55769,52969,48769,433
[Collapse]GwyneddLower variant118,590118,535118,510118,506118,523118,567118,641118,741118,868119,016119,184119,372119,570119,771119,972120,170120,365120,551120,721120,869120,994121,097121,172121,221
Higher variant118,590119,045119,502119,956120,411120,877121,358121,855122,371122,902123,447124,006124,572125,136125,696126,250126,798127,335127,854128,351128,826129,279129,707130,108
Zero migration variant118,590118,539118,509118,498118,510118,552118,622118,717118,835118,966119,102119,238119,360119,458119,532119,583119,608119,604119,561119,479119,361119,211119,025118,807
[Collapse]ConwyLower variant111,395111,455111,534111,628111,736111,856111,992112,144112,308112,480112,661112,846113,031113,208113,371113,522113,659113,781113,887113,973114,037114,078114,094114,082
Higher variant111,395111,967112,527113,073113,610114,138114,664115,190115,716116,241116,764117,285117,799118,298118,778119,240119,685120,110120,519120,908121,280121,635121,973122,290
Zero migration variant111,395111,089110,791110,505110,233109,977109,741109,529109,338109,167109,016108,884108,768108,659108,552108,447108,344108,240108,131108,013107,886107,745107,591107,420
[Collapse]DenbighshireLower variant96,73797,12897,53497,95398,38598,82899,28599,753100,230100,717101,208101,703102,192102,671103,138103,586104,017104,428104,818105,184105,527105,845106,137106,405
Higher variant96,73797,57698,40699,231100,051100,867101,683102,501103,319104,139104,957105,774106,581107,374108,150108,904109,638110,350111,042111,711112,363112,999113,619114,226
Zero migration variant96,73796,70996,68896,68096,68696,70796,74496,79896,86796,95497,05597,16897,28697,40697,52497,63497,73697,82797,90697,96998,01798,05098,06998,074
[Collapse]FlintshireLower variant149,731149,735149,737149,736149,731149,723149,714149,706149,699149,692149,678149,651149,606149,538149,445149,322149,166148,977148,754148,496148,197147,860147,484147,064
Higher variant149,731150,365150,969151,545152,096152,625153,138153,638154,131154,614155,081155,529155,951156,344156,704157,029157,315157,564157,776157,953158,095158,206158,287158,336
Zero migration variant149,731150,157150,564150,954151,333151,701152,065152,427152,793153,162153,529153,894154,252154,603154,946155,273155,582155,869156,136156,378156,589156,771156,922157,038
[Collapse]WrexhamLower variant132,719133,275133,841134,414134,992135,576136,164136,761137,362137,964138,564139,159139,743140,313140,865141,396141,912142,412142,893143,352143,788144,199144,586144,946
Higher variant132,719133,865134,999136,118137,224138,317139,402140,481141,555142,623143,679144,725145,753146,763147,750148,712149,656150,585151,497152,394153,277154,148155,010155,858
Zero migration variant132,719133,133133,539133,935134,320134,695135,061135,423135,778136,126136,463136,789137,101137,397137,674137,931138,174138,404138,618138,813138,991139,150139,290139,407
[Collapse]PowysLower variant131,677132,183132,686133,180133,672134,164134,658135,159135,661136,166136,674137,180137,676138,154138,609139,041139,446139,819140,158140,457140,712140,923141,086141,195
Higher variant131,677132,716133,725134,704135,662136,601137,528138,451139,365140,273141,177142,073142,954143,813144,646145,452146,227146,968147,673148,337148,959149,542150,083150,580
Zero migration variant131,677131,521131,356131,186131,023130,871130,735130,627130,545130,491130,470130,475130,501130,540130,586130,636130,682130,717130,734130,724130,681130,605130,489130,331
[Collapse]CeredigionLower variant76,81277,01977,23877,46377,69877,94378,20178,46778,74379,02079,29579,56979,83780,09880,34880,58580,81081,01781,20781,38081,53181,66381,77481,864
Higher variant76,81277,29277,77678,25778,73979,22479,71580,21080,70981,20581,69582,18082,65583,12183,57384,00884,42884,82885,21085,57285,91186,23086,52686,800
Zero migration variant76,81276,74376,69476,67076,68076,73176,82776,96877,14977,34977,54677,72577,87577,99778,08478,13178,13978,10178,01677,88977,72277,51977,28177,008
[Collapse]PembrokeshireLower variant117,592117,934118,286118,646119,011119,385119,765120,150120,540120,930121,315121,692122,054122,398122,719123,019123,294123,545123,771123,968124,138124,277124,384124,457
Higher variant117,592118,443119,282120,108120,923121,732122,533123,326124,115124,896125,663126,415127,145127,851128,529129,179129,799130,391130,955131,492132,004132,493132,961133,407
Zero migration variant117,592117,584117,582117,593117,620117,668117,736117,824117,936118,066118,209118,363118,522118,684118,843118,997119,138119,267119,378119,469119,539119,584119,603119,595
[Collapse]CarmarthenshireLower variant180,657181,578182,528183,500184,498185,518186,558187,619188,698189,785190,879191,970193,045194,100195,128196,127197,098198,029198,925199,781200,594201,362202,085202,761
Higher variant180,657182,395184,122185,835187,541189,243190,941192,640194,342196,039197,730199,406201,060202,684204,275205,831207,353208,832210,275211,681213,050214,386215,691216,965
Zero migration variant180,657180,584180,518180,462180,420180,397180,392180,412180,455180,516180,592180,675180,759180,837180,904180,955180,988180,992180,968180,912180,820180,691180,525180,321
[Collapse]SwanseaLower variant230,051230,906231,834232,830233,891235,025236,233237,512238,853240,242241,668243,122244,586246,046247,495248,927250,342251,734253,101254,439255,748257,028258,279259,506
Higher variant230,051231,923233,828235,766237,741239,763241,838243,970246,151248,368250,613252,877255,142257,394259,625261,831264,011266,163268,288270,386272,464274,521276,557278,582
Zero migration variant230,051230,457230,897231,374231,886232,443233,041233,673234,324234,970235,595236,185236,718237,177237,555237,852238,070238,209238,277238,279238,227238,129237,988237,814
[Collapse]Neath Port TalbotLower variant137,559137,792138,060138,354138,673139,014139,378139,763140,163140,575140,987141,396141,795142,179142,545142,893143,223143,534143,823144,089144,329144,544144,736144,899
Higher variant137,559138,403139,253140,105140,960141,818142,682143,552144,427145,301146,167147,020147,854148,667149,454150,218150,958151,675152,372153,047153,704154,346154,977155,594
Zero migration variant137,559137,634137,720137,812137,913138,022138,143138,276138,420138,571138,722138,869139,007139,133139,242139,334139,410139,466139,503139,515139,504139,470139,414139,333
[Collapse]BridgendLower variant133,921134,446134,979135,526136,081136,644137,216137,800138,395138,997139,599140,199140,787141,357141,906142,434142,943143,428143,889144,321144,728145,113145,468145,792
Higher variant133,921135,049136,156137,252138,333139,403140,466141,525142,587143,647144,700145,744146,770147,773148,750149,702150,631151,535152,415153,270154,109154,938155,752156,551
Zero migration variant133,921134,142134,355134,571134,790135,007135,228135,455135,695135,946136,203136,464136,724136,976137,222137,458137,685137,898138,093138,267138,422138,561138,677138,770
[Collapse]The Vale of GlamorganLower variant124,123124,692125,277125,872126,482127,106127,746128,403129,078129,771130,473131,181131,885132,578133,256133,917134,558135,179135,776136,347136,890137,403137,885138,334
Higher variant124,123125,237126,344127,442128,535129,628130,723131,827132,941134,066135,197136,329137,452138,560139,649140,716141,761142,784143,784144,758145,709146,639147,550148,441
Zero migration variant124,123124,399124,673124,946125,226125,512125,807126,114126,437126,780127,139127,511127,886128,261128,632128,997129,353129,697130,024130,328130,607130,858131,080131,270
[Collapse]CardiffLower variant330,515334,208338,044342,024346,151350,434354,881359,489364,253369,154374,171379,278384,447389,654394,881400,115405,341410,546415,721420,856425,948430,996436,002440,967
Higher variant330,515335,665340,928346,312351,825357,484363,302369,281375,421381,702388,103394,596401,153407,747414,358420,973427,577434,160440,716447,243453,744460,216466,662473,088
Zero migration variant330,515332,493334,534336,652338,853341,146343,532345,996348,516351,047353,541355,941358,188360,241362,071363,672365,047366,209367,179367,977368,627369,154369,580369,927
[Collapse]Rhondda, Cynon, TaffLower variant234,377234,362234,393234,461234,564234,702234,875235,080235,310235,556235,810236,061236,297236,508236,694236,853236,984237,081237,140237,161237,142237,081236,976236,835
Higher variant234,377235,442236,503237,555238,603239,648240,695241,749242,805243,858244,899245,922246,913247,867248,782249,659250,498251,297252,057252,785253,485254,160254,809255,439
Zero migration variant234,377234,773235,181235,598236,023236,458236,905237,366237,834238,300238,758239,197239,605239,976240,309240,603240,858241,072241,244241,376241,471241,528241,546241,532
[Collapse]Merthyr TydfilLower variant55,55655,52555,51655,52255,54055,56955,61055,66255,71855,77555,82955,87755,91555,94155,95255,95155,93855,91255,87755,83255,78155,72455,66155,594
Higher variant55,55655,80756,06656,33156,59856,86757,14057,41857,69457,96658,22858,47958,71458,93259,13159,31459,48059,63259,77359,90860,04260,17760,31660,462
Zero migration variant55,55655,70855,87156,04456,22456,41256,60856,81457,02457,23657,44457,64957,84658,03458,20958,37458,52858,67358,80858,93859,06459,18859,31159,434
[Collapse]CaerphillyLower variant172,363172,504172,657172,829173,017173,217173,430173,655173,890174,126174,357174,577174,776174,950175,096175,212175,296175,350175,370175,356175,306175,219175,091174,925
Higher variant172,363173,282174,182175,072175,950176,817177,678178,535179,387180,228181,053181,856182,628183,365184,065184,725185,347185,933186,485187,006187,500187,974188,425188,855
Zero migration variant172,363172,839173,305173,772174,238174,703175,172175,646176,125176,606177,082177,548177,997178,424178,829179,209179,562179,892180,194180,470180,720180,944181,139181,306
[Collapse]Blaenau GwentLower variant68,75968,69268,65068,63168,63268,65268,68968,73968,79968,86568,93168,99169,04369,07969,10169,10569,09169,06069,01468,95368,87568,78668,68468,570
Higher variant68,75969,03069,31169,60169,90070,20670,52070,83971,16171,48371,79972,10372,39272,66172,90973,13573,33873,52073,68573,83573,97374,10574,23274,356
Zero migration variant68,75968,82668,91169,01169,12969,26369,41269,57469,74569,92370,10170,27570,44270,59570,73470,85770,96171,04971,12371,18271,22871,26471,29171,311
[Collapse]TorfaenLower variant90,64590,43390,24090,06189,89489,73789,59289,45689,32989,20589,08088,95088,81088,65888,48788,29988,09787,88187,64887,39887,12986,84286,53486,203
Higher variant90,64590,83791,03091,22191,40891,59291,77691,96192,14592,32492,49592,65492,79692,91893,01693,09193,14793,18593,20693,21193,20193,17993,14493,094
Zero migration variant90,64590,73490,83390,94391,06291,18991,32691,47391,63091,79291,95692,11892,27492,42292,55692,67692,78692,88592,96993,03993,09493,13393,15593,157
[Collapse]MonmouthshireLower variant87,83788,02488,20388,37688,54488,71288,88589,06089,23889,41689,59689,77989,95690,12790,28890,43690,56990,68890,78890,86490,91590,93890,93290,895
Higher variant87,83788,36588,86889,35189,81790,27290,72191,16791,60992,04892,48592,92193,34993,76994,17694,56894,94395,30195,63995,95296,24096,50496,74196,951
Zero migration variant87,83787,82287,79287,75587,71787,68287,65787,64087,63587,64387,66887,71587,77887,85787,94988,05088,15588,26188,36088,44288,50388,54088,54888,526
[Collapse]NewportLower variant139,662139,767139,909140,077140,281140,521140,801141,118141,470141,849142,247142,656143,065143,466143,853144,225144,581144,918145,237145,533145,805146,057146,286146,495
Higher variant139,662140,428141,207141,992142,794143,617144,466145,343146,248147,175148,113149,057149,995150,916151,817152,696153,552154,385155,198155,993156,771157,542158,307159,068
Zero migration variant139,662140,287140,923141,565142,220142,893143,589144,308145,052145,812146,580147,352148,116148,864149,593150,302150,990151,657152,304152,928153,529154,113154,679155,229

Metadata

POPU5005: Variants for the 2008-based local authority population projections for Wales, 2008 to 2031

Knowledge & Analytical Services, Welsh Government

Added to StatsWales: May 2010.
Source: Knowledge & Analytical Services, Welsh Government

This table provides variant population projections for local authorities in Wales by the following categories (the data can be found by using the interactive drill down method):

Gender: All persons, males & females,
Age-group: Quinary age-groups, single year of age
Year: Mid year population for 2008 through to 2033.
Variants: Higher variant, Lower variant and Zero migration variant (see below for more information)

Population Projections
This is the first time that population projections have been published for the 22 unitary authorities in Wales.

Population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population, and are based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends. Projections only indicate what may happen should the recent trends continue. Projections done in this way do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies on future population levels, distribution and change.

Base Population
The 2008 population estimates have been used as the base for the local authority projections. The projections have been produced for a period of 25 years, that is to 2033. Projections become increasingly uncertain the further we try to look into the future.


The projected population is for 30 June each year. The 2008 mid year estimates of population have been used as the base population for these projections. The base population estimates are based on the usually resident population. Usual residents away from home temporarily are included, but visitors are excluded. Students are counted at their term-time address. It should also be noted that the UN definition of an international migrant is used - those changing country of residence for a period of at least 12 months. Short-term migrants (eg migrant workers from Eastern European countries) are not counted in the population estimates and hence are not included in the population projections.

A no migration (natural change only) projection has been produced to illustrate the projected population of each local authority if there were no future unward or outward migration

A high and low variant projection have also been produced. The high variant is based on an assumption of high fertility and low mortality. The low variant is based on an assumption of low fertility and high mortality.

Contact - stats.popcensus@wales.gsi.gov.uk

Population Projections

Name

popu5005