Population projections by components of change, local authority and year

Archived (English only) – No longer updated.

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Year

Component

Area

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

2029-30

2030-31

2031-32

2032-33

Births

Isle of Anglesey

773

768

764

760

756

754

751

749

746

744

740

734

727

719

711

703

696

692

690

689

688

689

691

692

Gwynedd

1,251

1,249

1,246

1,247

1,253

1,263

1,277

1,293

1,309

1,323

1,336

1,345

1,349

1,352

1,355

1,352

1,345

1,334

1,324

1,314

1,303

1,292

1,282

1,273

Conwy

1,129

1,115

1,099

1,088

1,080

1,072

1,069

1,071

1,072

1,071

1,070

1,069

1,065

1,057

1,050

1,045

1,038

1,033

1,029

1,026

1,020

1,014

1,007

1,001

995

Denbighshire

1,106

1,100

1,094

1,089

1,086

1,085

1,086

1,089

1,092

1,095

1,096

1,095

1,092

1,086

1,079

1,072

1,066

1,061

1,057

1,055

1,053

1,051

1,052

Flintshire

1,792

1,766

1,742

1,721

1,704

1,693

1,688

1,686

1,680

1,673

1,664

1,653

1,639

1,624

1,609

1,594

1,580

1,567

1,554

1,541

1,527

1,515

1,503

1,493

Wrexham

1,687

1,678

1,668

1,658

1,650

1,644

1,642

1,639

1,635

1,629

1,624

1,618

1,611

1,609

1,610

1,612

1,614

1,617

1,620

1,623

1,627

1,633

Powys

1,256

1,242

1,229

1,222

1,218

1,224

1,231

1,238

1,244

1,249

1,251

1,250

1,248

1,244

1,238

1,231

1,223

1,213

1,202

1,192

1,181

1,171

1,163

1,155

Ceredigion

651

658

661

664

669

676

683

688

689

688

686

684

679

673

665

657

649

640

632

624

615

608

602

598

Pembrokeshire

1,271

1,265

1,258

1,255

1,253

1,252

1,254

1,250

1,246

1,241

1,232

1,221

1,210

1,199

1,189

1,180

1,172

1,165

1,158

1,152

1,148

1,143

1,139

Carmarthenshire

2,010

2,007

2,001

1,998

2,001

2,009

2,018

2,024

2,026

2,025

2,020

2,013

2,005

1,997

1,988

1,980

1,974

1,970

1,967

1,965

1,966

1,971

1,977

Swansea

2,749

2,773

2,799

2,828

2,862

2,900

2,944

2,987

3,020

3,046

3,064

3,074

3,068

3,058

3,046

3,034

3,024

3,014

3,007

3,002

3,000

3,003

3,011

3,024

Neath Port Talbot

1,567

1,565

1,562

1,558

1,557

1,559

1,562

1,556

1,547

1,536

1,524

1,512

1,501

1,491

1,482

1,476

1,470

1,467

1,465

1,464

1,465

1,469

1,474

Bridgend

1,619

1,606

1,594

1,583

1,574

1,569

1,574

1,578

1,580

1,575

1,570

1,565

1,559

1,554

1,549

1,546

1,543

1,544

1,547

1,549

1,552

1,554

1,557

The Vale of Glamorgan

1,506

1,500

1,495

1,493

1,498

1,508

1,522

1,536

1,546

1,553

1,556

1,553

1,547

1,540

1,534

1,530

1,524

1,519

1,515

1,512

1,509

1,506

1,503

1,502

Cardiff

4,640

4,732

4,833

4,944

5,066

5,196

5,334

5,472

5,594

5,696

5,780

5,842

5,884

5,911

5,926

5,930

5,925

5,918

5,906

5,896

5,887

5,882

5,887

5,900

5,926

Rhondda, Cynon, Taff

2,902

2,889

2,875

2,859

2,845

2,834

2,829

2,828

2,821

2,809

2,792

2,771

2,748

2,726

2,705

2,684

2,664

2,646

2,631

2,619

2,608

2,599

2,593

2,590

2,589

Merthyr Tydfil

781

783

784

782

779

776

769

760

749

736

722

709

697

686

677

670

668

669

673

680

686

693

Caerphilly

2,187

2,173

2,159

2,147

2,135

2,128

2,126

2,125

2,119

2,110

2,098

2,082

2,062

2,042

2,023

2,005

1,988

1,975

1,962

1,952

1,943

1,935

1,928

1,922

1,920

Blaenau Gwent

880

886

890

893

895

897

899

897

891

881

869

855

840

824

809

796

785

777

771

768

767

769

773

Torfaen

1,056

1,053

1,049

1,046

1,044

1,041

1,034

1,024

1,013

999

983

969

958

948

938

929

921

913

906

900

896

893

Monmouthshire

846

830

817

808

803

802

804

809

814

820

826

829

832

833

831

828

824

819

812

805

796

786

777

768

760

Newport

1,970

1,972

1,977

1,984

1,994

2,008

2,028

2,049

2,066

2,077

2,082

2,079

2,069

2,056

2,042

2,027

2,012

2,000

1,988

1,979

1,973

1,969

1,968

1,969

1,974

Deaths

Isle of Anglesey

759

754

748

744

741

738

737

738

742

746

750

756

761

769

778

789

800

813

825

838

851

865

879

893

Gwynedd

1,302

1,285

1,274

1,264

1,252

1,240

1,232

1,226

1,223

1,221

1,217

1,220

1,225

1,232

1,238

1,244

1,254

1,265

1,278

1,290

1,306

1,322

1,341

1,360

Conwy

1,435

1,419

1,403

1,391

1,380

1,367

1,356

1,351

1,348

1,344

1,343

1,345

1,352

1,360

1,369

1,378

1,390

1,401

1,417

1,433

1,449

1,463

1,482

1,503

1,524

Denbighshire

1,134

1,126

1,116

1,109

1,102

1,094

1,089

1,087

1,085

1,086

1,093

1,102

1,110

1,123

1,135

1,151

1,166

1,186

1,204

1,223

1,242

1,262

1,284

1,307

Flintshire

1,366

1,356

1,349

1,343

1,340

1,336

1,338

1,341

1,344

1,350

1,359

1,372

1,386

1,402

1,419

1,440

1,461

1,482

1,505

1,531

1,552

1,574

1,601

1,626

1,652

Wrexham

1,272

1,266

1,260

1,255

1,252

1,247

1,244

1,247

1,251

1,255

1,263

1,275

1,289

1,305

1,319

1,335

1,354

1,375

1,396

1,418

1,438

1,463

1,490

1,516

Powys

1,411

1,415

1,422

1,428

1,434

1,439

1,445

1,455

1,464

1,470

1,480

1,495

1,514

1,536

1,556

1,580

1,606

1,633

1,664

1,696

1,727

1,762

1,803

1,839

1,879

Ceredigion

720

722

720

718

716

717

715

717

721

723

729

735

743

751

757

768

777

788

801

813

827

841

857

874

Pembrokeshire

1,279

1,274

1,271

1,269

1,271

1,273

1,277

1,283

1,289

1,302

1,315

1,330

1,342

1,359

1,375

1,393

1,413

1,432

1,452

1,475

1,499

1,523

1,549

Carmarthenshire

2,082

2,073

2,063

2,053

2,044

2,041

2,037

2,036

2,040

2,042

2,049

2,063

2,082

2,103

2,127

2,150

2,182

2,212

2,247

2,284

2,322

2,361

2,403

2,447

2,495

Swansea

2,343

2,316

2,293

2,272

2,246

2,222

2,202

2,189

2,181

2,174

2,169

2,173

2,181

2,191

2,202

2,211

2,225

2,241

2,259

2,278

2,298

2,321

2,343

2,367

2,400

Neath Port Talbot

1,492

1,471

1,454

1,437

1,424

1,410

1,399

1,392

1,386

1,385

1,384

1,386

1,393

1,402

1,412

1,423

1,435

1,451

1,468

1,486

1,505

1,522

1,545

1,569

1,592

Bridgend

1,398

1,393

1,380

1,373

1,367

1,360

1,357

1,355

1,356

1,362

1,367

1,377

1,393

1,410

1,427

1,444

1,463

1,484

1,509

1,531

1,551

1,577

1,604

1,629

1,657

The Vale of Glamorgan

1,229

1,221

1,216

1,209

1,203

1,198

1,197

1,196

1,198

1,202

1,211

1,221

1,231

1,244

1,260

1,276

1,295

1,316

1,338

1,360

1,383

1,407

1,433

1,458

Cardiff

2,661

2,628

2,598

2,572

2,544

2,513

2,491

2,470

2,453

2,438

2,429

2,433

2,441

2,451

2,463

2,481

2,502

2,526

2,551

2,579

2,610

2,645

2,684

2,727

Rhondda, Cynon, Taff

2,506

2,475

2,448

2,418

2,388

2,359

2,336

2,320

2,308

2,298

2,291

2,293

2,301

2,311

2,322

2,335

2,351

2,372

2,393

2,415

2,440

2,466

2,490

2,517

2,549

Merthyr Tydfil

629

616

607

598

589

581

574

569

564

562

559

558

559

563

565

569

573

577

582

586

591

596

601

606

611

Caerphilly

1,711

1,701

1,684

1,671

1,659

1,648

1,643

1,639

1,640

1,645

1,654

1,665

1,677

1,693

1,710

1,726

1,747

1,767

1,790

1,810

1,835

1,859

1,886

1,914

Blaenau Gwent

813

802

791

779

768

758

752

745

740

738

735

739

742

746

752

757

762

770

779

785

792

801

810

821

Torfaen

967

959

950

942

936

929

924

920

918

916

914

916

918

924

930

935

941

948

956

965

973

983

996

1,007

1,021

Monmouthshire

861

862

861

865

868

873

880

886

891

901

911

923

935

948

961

974

992

1,010

1,028

1,046

1,066

1,087

1,110

Newport

1,345

1,324

1,312

1,294

1,277

1,257

1,244

1,234

1,227

1,223

1,219

1,222

1,226

1,231

1,235

1,241

1,248

1,257

1,269

1,278

1,289

1,301

1,314

1,330

Net UK migrants

Isle of Anglesey

217

Gwynedd

146

Conwy

675

Denbighshire

661

Flintshire

-9

Wrexham

290

Powys

913

Ceredigion

135

Pembrokeshire

594

Carmarthenshire

1,345

Swansea

404

Neath Port Talbot

564

Bridgend

658

The Vale of Glamorgan

547

Cardiff

-272

Rhondda, Cynon, Taff

270

Merthyr Tydfil

-54

Caerphilly

199

Blaenau Gwent

Torfaen

-33

Monmouthshire

439

Newport

-151

Net overseas migrants

Isle of Anglesey

-11

Gwynedd

104

Conwy

-53

Denbighshire

-18

Flintshire

-98

Wrexham

147

Powys

Ceredigion

277

Pembrokeshire

Carmarthenshire

Swansea

553

Neath Port Talbot

-101

Bridgend

-53

The Vale of Glamorgan

Cardiff

2,715

Rhondda, Cynon, Taff

-140

Merthyr Tydfil

Caerphilly

-145

Blaenau Gwent

-12

Torfaen

-65

Monmouthshire

-67

Newport

-39

Total fertility rate

Isle of Anglesey

Gwynedd

Conwy

Denbighshire

Flintshire

Wrexham

Powys

Ceredigion

Pembrokeshire

Carmarthenshire

Swansea

Neath Port Talbot

Bridgend

The Vale of Glamorgan

Cardiff

Rhondda, Cynon, Taff

Merthyr Tydfil

Caerphilly

Blaenau Gwent

Torfaen

Monmouthshire

Newport

Standardised mortality ratio

Isle of Anglesey

Gwynedd

Conwy

Denbighshire

Flintshire

Wrexham

Powys

Ceredigion

Pembrokeshire

Carmarthenshire

Swansea

Neath Port Talbot

Bridgend

The Vale of Glamorgan

Cardiff

Rhondda, Cynon, Taff

Merthyr Tydfil

106

103

100

Caerphilly

Blaenau Gwent

102

Torfaen

Monmouthshire

Newport

Metadata

Undefined
High level information
Open Data

Title

popu5014: 2008-based local authority population projections components

Author

Knowledge & Analytical Services, Welsh Government

Notes

Added to StatsWales: May 2010
Source: Knowledge & Analytical Services, Welsh Government

Population Projections
This is the second set of population projections published for the 22 unitary authorities in Wales. Population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population, and are based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends. Projections only indicate what may happen should the recent trends continue. Projections done in this way do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies on future population levels, distribution and change.

Base Population
The 2008 population estimates have been used as the base for the local authority projections. The projections have been produced for a period of 25 years, that is to 2033. Projections become increasingly uncertain the further we try to look into the future.

The projected population is for 30 June each year. The 2008 mid year estimates of population have been used as the base population for these projections. The base population estimates are based on the usually resident population. Usual residents away from home temporarily are included, but visitors are excluded. Students are counted at their term-time address. It should also be noted that the UN definition of an international migrant is used - those changing country of residence for a period of at least 12 months. Short-term migrants (eg migrant workers from Eastern European countries) are not counted in the population estimates and hence are not included in the population projections.

Contact - stats.popcensus@wales.gsi.gov.uk

Keywords

Population Projections

Data licensing

You may use and re-use this data free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government License - see http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence

Name

popu5014