Population projections by components of change, local authority and year

Archived (English only) – No longer updated.

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Year

Component

Area

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

2029-30

2030-31

2031-32

2032-33

Births

Isle of Anglesey

733

746

750

752

753

752

748

742

736

732

728

723

719

715

708

699

689

681

673

665

660

655

650

646

643

Gwynedd

1,343

1,373

1,386

1,400

1,410

1,413

1,414

1,415

1,419

1,422

1,427

1,431

1,434

1,430

1,426

1,422

1,417

1,411

1,404

1,396

1,389

1,382

1,375

1,370

Conwy

1,101

1,116

1,120

1,123

1,124

1,122

1,118

1,115

1,119

1,123

1,128

1,132

1,134

1,133

1,130

1,128

1,125

1,123

1,122

1,119

1,115

1,111

1,107

1,104

Denbighshire

996

1,017

1,025

1,033

1,040

1,042

1,041

1,044

1,047

1,051

1,055

1,056

1,055

1,052

1,048

1,045

1,043

1,042

1,041

1,039

1,038

1,037

Flintshire

1,654

1,673

1,675

1,676

1,675

1,668

1,655

1,642

1,634

1,632

1,630

1,626

1,620

1,612

1,601

1,589

1,575

1,561

1,547

1,533

1,519

1,503

1,487

1,472

1,459

Wrexham

1,643

1,671

1,682

1,690

1,693

1,686

1,673

1,657

1,643

1,633

1,626

1,619

1,612

1,604

1,596

1,587

1,580

1,577

1,576

1,578

1,582

1,586

1,592

1,599

1,607

Powys

1,242

1,262

1,267

1,275

1,283

1,286

1,289

1,293

1,301

1,311

1,322

1,333

1,342

1,349

1,351

1,350

1,347

1,343

1,337

1,331

1,324

1,317

1,310

1,303

1,298

Ceredigion

614

641

660

675

686

693

695

696

698

704

709

713

712

711

709

705

699

694

688

683

677

671

664

657

Pembrokeshire

1,255

1,281

1,296

1,306

1,313

1,318

1,320

1,317

1,315

1,317

1,319

1,317

1,315

1,313

1,308

1,298

1,288

1,279

1,271

1,263

1,256

1,249

1,243

1,238

1,235

Carmarthenshire

1,871

1,914

1,935

1,951

1,961

1,963

1,961

1,958

1,956

1,955

1,952

1,948

1,941

1,933

1,925

1,916

1,907

1,899

1,892

1,886

1,883

1,881

1,883

Swansea

2,556

2,635

2,685

2,732

2,773

2,802

2,820

2,834

2,846

2,858

2,866

2,868

2,866

2,857

2,842

2,825

2,808

2,792

2,780

2,768

2,760

2,755

2,753

2,754

2,759

Neath Port Talbot

1,519

1,560

1,584

1,606

1,625

1,635

1,641

1,644

1,648

1,652

1,654

1,652

1,646

1,637

1,628

1,620

1,612

1,606

1,604

1,603

1,605

1,609

1,616

1,626

1,637

Bridgend

1,537

1,572

1,588

1,602

1,611

1,615

1,614

1,613

1,615

1,618

1,621

1,623

1,622

1,618

1,612

1,605

1,599

1,594

1,591

1,587

1,585

1,586

1,588

1,591

1,596

The Vale of Glamorgan

1,323

1,360

1,382

1,401

1,416

1,425

1,429

1,434

1,441

1,451

1,462

1,471

1,476

1,478

1,476

1,471

1,465

1,460

1,454

1,448

1,442

1,437

1,433

1,430

1,427

Cardiff

4,296

4,443

4,548

4,651

4,743

4,817

4,875

4,925

4,974

5,022

5,063

5,092

5,107

5,098

5,083

5,063

5,040

5,019

4,996

4,975

4,956

4,942

4,934

4,932

Rhondda, Cynon, Taff

2,876

2,944

2,978

3,006

3,025

3,028

3,018

3,002

2,987

2,974

2,958

2,937

2,913

2,885

2,856

2,828

2,803

2,782

2,764

2,750

2,740

2,735

2,734

2,737

2,743

Merthyr Tydfil

657

671

675

679

682

679

674

669

663

655

645

633

621

607

595

584

574

565

557

550

545

541

538

536

Caerphilly

2,085

2,125

2,140

2,153

2,163

2,164

2,158

2,151

2,145

2,139

2,132

2,122

2,108

2,089

2,067

2,047

2,027

2,008

1,992

1,977

1,963

1,953

1,945

1,939

1,934

Blaenau Gwent

802

823

837

849

860

868

871

872

870

866

859

849

836

821

806

791

776

765

756

749

744

741

740

741

Torfaen

1,112

1,135

1,146

1,158

1,166

1,168

1,167

1,166

1,165

1,162

1,155

1,145

1,133

1,118

1,100

1,082

1,067

1,054

1,042

1,031

1,023

1,017

1,012

1,010

Monmouthshire

814

824

826

827

824

822

823

825

830

837

844

851

856

858

859

857

854

850

844

836

829

821

815

Newport

1,732

1,783

1,812

1,839

1,865

1,883

1,893

1,901

1,912

1,923

1,929

1,933

1,932

1,924

1,912

1,898

1,884

1,869

1,855

1,843

1,833

1,824

1,817

1,813

1,811

Deaths

Isle of Anglesey

765

773

763

757

752

748

745

743

744

745

746

750

753

757

760

765

773

783

792

803

815

826

840

852

865

Gwynedd

1,252

1,266

1,254

1,245

1,239

1,238

1,235

1,232

1,230

1,227

1,228

1,231

1,233

1,236

1,241

1,246

1,256

1,267

1,278

1,290

1,303

1,320

1,337

1,357

1,375

Conwy

1,466

1,474

1,455

1,439

1,429

1,421

1,417

1,411

1,404

1,400

1,404

1,408

1,414

1,423

1,435

1,448

1,462

1,477

1,495

1,516

1,538

1,559

1,581

Denbighshire

1,169

1,179

1,164

1,154

1,147

1,140

1,138

1,134

1,132

1,128

1,131

1,136

1,143

1,150

1,159

1,172

1,187

1,203

1,219

1,240

1,259

1,283

1,305

1,327

Flintshire

1,402

1,414

1,401

1,391

1,383

1,380

1,381

1,383

1,388

1,393

1,401

1,413

1,427

1,442

1,459

1,478

1,501

1,525

1,548

1,572

1,599

1,624

1,650

1,677

Wrexham

1,299

1,311

1,296

1,285

1,277

1,270

1,269

1,267

1,262

1,261

1,265

1,272

1,278

1,287

1,300

1,316

1,333

1,349

1,366

1,387

1,408

1,430

1,452

1,476

Powys

1,438

1,467

1,464

1,470

1,475

1,482

1,493

1,499

1,508

1,516

1,526

1,539

1,552

1,568

1,585

1,606

1,629

1,655

1,681

1,710

1,742

1,777

1,814

1,852

Ceredigion

722

735

734

733

735

736

738

741

742

743

745

750

755

760

767

775

784

794

806

817

831

847

863

879

896

Pembrokeshire

1,380

1,395

1,385

1,375

1,367

1,364

1,363

1,364

1,366

1,367

1,372

1,380

1,389

1,403

1,414

1,430

1,446

1,466

1,486

1,507

1,530

1,552

1,579

1,604

1,629

Carmarthenshire

2,127

2,149

2,133

2,120

2,110

2,103

2,100

2,105

2,103

2,108

2,114

2,127

2,141

2,157

2,177

2,203

2,231

2,266

2,298

2,334

2,374

2,415

2,459

2,504

Swansea

2,427

2,437

2,399

2,368

2,342

2,321

2,300

2,282

2,264

2,250

2,240

2,235

2,234

2,239

2,244

2,255

2,265

2,280

2,296

2,313

2,335

2,358

2,384

2,409

Neath Port Talbot

1,526

1,537

1,519

1,504

1,490

1,478

1,472

1,464

1,458

1,451

1,446

1,447

1,450

1,454

1,462

1,470

1,483

1,496

1,511

1,530

1,547

1,568

1,590

1,611

1,637

Bridgend

1,415

1,423

1,404

1,391

1,377

1,371

1,367

1,361

1,356

1,354

1,360

1,367

1,375

1,388

1,402

1,419

1,438

1,456

1,475

1,497

1,520

1,542

1,569

1,594

The Vale of Glamorgan

1,229

1,244

1,234

1,224

1,219

1,215

1,213

1,212

1,211

1,212

1,214

1,221

1,229

1,238

1,247

1,260

1,277

1,294

1,311

1,331

1,353

1,378

1,402

1,425

Cardiff

2,669

2,680

2,639

2,598

2,564

2,538

2,511

2,484

2,460

2,433

2,412

2,395

2,384

2,376

2,370

2,369

2,374

2,382

2,394

2,408

2,425

2,444

2,467

2,494

2,521

Rhondda, Cynon, Taff

2,395

2,412

2,382

2,357

2,337

2,322

2,307

2,292

2,279

2,270

2,265

2,264

2,263

2,267

2,276

2,288

2,301

2,319

2,338

2,361

2,385

2,410

2,437

2,469

2,498

Merthyr Tydfil

553

557

551

545

542

538

534

532

528

527

525

524

525

528

532

536

540

545

550

554

560

565

571

Caerphilly

1,653

1,674

1,659

1,652

1,643

1,637

1,632

1,631

1,630

1,629

1,632

1,635

1,643

1,654

1,663

1,675

1,692

1,709

1,726

1,745

1,764

1,787

1,810

1,834

1,860

Blaenau Gwent

791

797

786

779

771

764

758

754

750

745

743

744

746

750

753

759

765

772

778

785

794

801

810

819

Torfaen

887

905

902

898

895

893

894

893

892

893

896

899

903

910

916

923

931

939

950

960

972

985

Monmouthshire

864

879

881

882

888

892

897

901

908

915

922

930

940

951

963

974

988

1,002

1,017

1,034

1,052

1,071

1,091

1,112

Newport

1,348

1,365

1,346

1,329

1,321

1,309

1,299

1,290

1,283

1,274

1,272

1,271

1,269

1,271

1,273

1,276

1,283

1,291

1,299

1,308

1,319

1,333

1,348

1,364

1,380

Net UK migrants

Isle of Anglesey

228

Gwynedd

352

Conwy

985

Denbighshire

882

Flintshire

147

Wrexham

354

Powys

1,193

Ceredigion

456

Pembrokeshire

785

Carmarthenshire

1,651

Swansea

351

Neath Port Talbot

984

Bridgend

696

The Vale of Glamorgan

840

Cardiff

-578

Rhondda, Cynon, Taff

329

Merthyr Tydfil

-120

Caerphilly

333

Blaenau Gwent

Torfaen

Monmouthshire

680

Newport

206

Net overseas migrants

Isle of Anglesey

-42

Gwynedd

Conwy

-43

Denbighshire

Flintshire

-18

Wrexham

Powys

Ceredigion

173

Pembrokeshire

Carmarthenshire

-73

Swansea

544

Neath Port Talbot

-153

Bridgend

-29

The Vale of Glamorgan

-25

Cardiff

1,210

Rhondda, Cynon, Taff

-31

Merthyr Tydfil

-18

Caerphilly

-197

Blaenau Gwent

-6

Torfaen

-48

Monmouthshire

-62

Newport

Total fertility rate

Isle of Anglesey

Gwynedd

Conwy

Denbighshire

Flintshire

Wrexham

Powys

Ceredigion

Pembrokeshire

Carmarthenshire

Swansea

Neath Port Talbot

Bridgend

The Vale of Glamorgan

Cardiff

Rhondda, Cynon, Taff

Merthyr Tydfil

Caerphilly

Blaenau Gwent

Torfaen

Monmouthshire

Newport

Standardised mortality ratio

Isle of Anglesey

Gwynedd

Conwy

Denbighshire

Flintshire

101

100

Wrexham

101

Powys

Ceredigion

Pembrokeshire

102

Carmarthenshire

105

104

101

Swansea

100

Neath Port Talbot

104

103

100

Bridgend

111

110

107

104

101

The Vale of Glamorgan

Cardiff

100

Rhondda, Cynon, Taff

107

106

103

100

Merthyr Tydfil

107

106

103

100

Caerphilly

107

106

102

100

Blaenau Gwent

113

112

109

106

103

100

Torfaen

Monmouthshire

Newport

100

Metadata

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Author
Notes
Keywords
Open Data

POPopu1011: 2006-based local authority population projections components

Knowledge & Analytical Services, Welsh Government

Added to StatsWales: June 2008.
Source: Knowledge & Analytical Services, Welsh Government

Population Projections
This is the first time that population projections have been published for the 22 unitary authorities in Wales.

Population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population, and are based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends. Projections only indicate what may happen should the recent trends continue. Projections done in this way do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies on future population levels, distribution and change.

Base Population
The 2006 population estimates have been used as the base for the local authority projections. The projections have been produced for a period of 25 years, that is to 2031. Projections become increasingly uncertain the further we try to look into the future.

The projected population is for 30 June each year. The 2006 mid year estimates of population have been used as the base population for these projections. The base population estimates are based on the usually resident population. Usual residents away from home temporarily are included, but visitors are excluded. Students are counted at their term-time address. It should also be noted that the UN definition of an international migrant is used - those changing country of residence for a period of at least 12 months. Short-term migrants (eg migrant workers from Eastern European countries) are not counted in the population estimates and hence are not included in the population projections.

Contact - stats.popcensus@wales.gsi.gov.uk

Population Projections

Name

popu1011