Estimates of Housing Need (2019-based) by Region, Variant and Year

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Tenure

Tenure 1

Measure1

Year

Variant

Region

Region 1

2019/20

2020/21

2021/22

2022/23

2023/24

2024/25

2025/26

2026/27

2027/28

2028/29

2029/30

2030/31

2031/32

2032/33

2033/34

2034/35

2035/36

2036/37

2037/38

2038/39

Central Estimate Based on principle household projections

Wales

7,095

7,225

7,711

7,451

7,348

5,904

5,782

5,539

5,297

5,180

4,993

4,980

4,841

4,657

4,499

4,489

4,491

4,325

4,138

4,114

Wales

North Wales Welsh Economic Regions. North Wales: Isle of Anglesey, Gwynedd, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Wrexham

1,171

1,216

1,311

1,238

1,220

893

875

795

745

741

681

675

649

610

600

589

591

552

522

530

Mid Wales

105

137

157

192

139

146

129

118

110

106

104

South West Wales Welsh Economic Regions. South West Wales: Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire, Swansea, Neath Port Talbot

1,552

1,609

1,729

1,696

1,627

1,378

1,361

1,322

1,275

1,220

1,182

1,146

1,107

1,104

1,062

1,057

1,072

1,062

1,023

992

South East Wales Welsh Economic Regions. South East Wales: Bridgend, Vale of Glamorgan, Cardiff, Rhondda Cynon Taf, Merthyr Tydfil, Caerphilly, Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, Monmouthshire, Newport

Welsh Economic Regions. South East Wales: Bridgend, Vale of Glamorgan, Cardiff, Rhondda Cynon Taf, Merthyr Tydfil, Caerphilly, Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, Monmouthshire, Newport

4,295

4,533

4,359

4,308

3,494

3,400

3,293

3,159

3,109

3,024

3,055

3,009

2,896

2,794

2,803

2,777

2,680

2,577

2,570

Higher Variant Based on higher variant household projections

Wales

7,763

8,046

8,697

8,580

8,590

7,264

7,245

7,107

6,977

6,973

6,916

7,027

7,023

6,965

6,940

7,055

7,201

7,166

7,114

7,246

Wales

North Wales Welsh Economic Regions. North Wales: Isle of Anglesey, Gwynedd, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Wrexham

1,323

1,398

1,526

1,483

1,487

1,185

1,189

1,131

1,106

1,127

1,095

1,117

1,121

1,111

1,130

1,148

1,182

1,173

1,172

1,210

Mid Wales

118

157

199

228

270

224

238

228

223

227

232

215

193

199

204

226

214

210

230

South West Wales Welsh Economic Regions. South West Wales: Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire, Swansea, Neath Port Talbot

1,706

1,793

1,948

1,944

1,898

1,675

1,680

1,664

1,642

1,612

1,605

1,598

1,589

1,616

1,605

1,630

1,678

1,697

1,689

1,694

South East Wales Welsh Economic Regions. South East Wales: Bridgend, Vale of Glamorgan, Cardiff, Rhondda Cynon Taf, Merthyr Tydfil, Caerphilly, Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, Monmouthshire, Newport

4,617

4,696

5,024

4,925

4,933

4,180

4,138

4,084

4,006

4,011

3,989

4,080

4,098

4,045

4,006

4,073

4,115

4,082

4,043

4,112

Lower Variant Based on lower variant household projections

Wales

6,274

6,209

6,498

6,047

5,741

4,134

3,833

3,441

3,083

2,842

2,505

2,338

2,036

1,688

1,356

1,167

959

596

204

. $For this data point, household projections indicate an annual decrease in the number of households, leading to a negative figure for newly arising housing need. This value is therefore not applicable and has been treated as zero at the regional level throughout the statistical article and the StatsWales tables. Estimates of newly arising housing need at the Wales level are based on Wales level household projections, and do not correspond to the sum of the regions in cases where one or more of the region\’s values are not applicable.$

Wales

North Wales Welsh Economic Regions. North Wales: Isle of Anglesey, Gwynedd, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Wrexham

989

994

1,048

936

876

516

460

348

274

242

148

107

. $Ar gyfer y pwynt data hwn, mae amcanestyniadau aelwydydd yn dangos gostyngiad blynyddol yn nifer yr aelwydydd, gan arwain at ffigwr negyddol ar gyfer angen newydd. Felly, nid yw\'r gwerth hwn yn berthnasol ac fe\'i ystyriwyd fel sero ar y lefel ranbarthol trwy\'r erthygl ystadegol a thablau StatsCymru. Mae\’r amcangyfrifon o\’r angen newydd ar lefel Cymru yn seiliedig ar amcanestyniadau aelwydydd ar lefel Cymru, ac nid ydynt yn cyfateb i swm y rhanbarthau mewn achosion lle nad yw un neu fwy o werthoedd y rhanbarth yn berthnasol.$

Mid Wales

South West Wales Welsh Economic Regions. South West Wales: Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire, Swansea, Neath Port Talbot

1,366

1,383

1,463

1,390

1,279

995

938

866

792

709

635

563

484

442

359

312

279

223

137

South East Wales Welsh Economic Regions. South East Wales: Bridgend, Vale of Glamorgan, Cardiff, Rhondda Cynon Taf, Merthyr Tydfil, Caerphilly, Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, Monmouthshire, Newport

3,895

3,789

3,923

3,647

3,490

2,589

2,405

2,223

2,031

1,920

1,765

1,724

1,600

1,411

1,228

1,154

1,027

837

636

519

Metadata

High level information
Summary information
Weblinks
Statistical quality information
Keywords
Open Data

Title

Estimates of Additional Housing Need in Wales (2019-based)

Last update

13 August 2020

Next update

Not known

Publishing organisation

Welsh Government

Source 1

2018-based projections for local authorities in Wales, Welsh Government

Source 2

2011 Census, Office for National Statistics

Source 3

Homelessness data collection, Welsh Government

Contact email

stats.housing@gov.wales

Lowest level of geographical disaggregation

Welsh Government economic regions

Geographical coverage

Welsh Government economic regions

Languages covered

English and Welsh

Data licensing

You may use and re-use this data free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government License - see http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence

General description

These are 2019-based estimates of overall additional housing need in Wales. They are based on estimates of existing unmet need and newly arising need. The overall estimates cover 20 years at both a national and a regional level.
Estimates of the need for additional housing units by tenure are based on a set of assumptions. Estimates of additional housing need by tenure are for the period 2019/20 to 2023/24 only.
The sum of the newly arising need for the four regions may differ from that for Wales due to rounding differences. Also, for some years under the lower variant, for North and Mid Wales the newly arising need is negative. This is set to zero within the region but included within the Wales newly arising need resulting in the Wales figure being lower than the sum of the four regions’ newly arising need.

Data collection and calculation

2018-based household projections have been used to calculate newly arising need. Existing unmet need is calculated from the 2011 Census and Households in Temporary Accommodation. Estimates of the need for additional housing units by tenure are based on a set of assumptions (see related article for further information).

Data reference periods

2019/20 to 2038/39 for overall estimates
2019/20 to 2023/24 for estimates by tenure

Users, uses and context

Please find this information in the related statistical publications, as per the given weblink.

Rounding applied

2018-based household projections have been rounded to the nearest whole number.

Weblinks

https://gov.wales/estimates-housing-need

Statistical quality

Please find this information in the related statistical publications, as per the given weblink.

Keywords

Housing, Housing Need

Name

HOUS2203