Household projections for selected local authority by year and variant
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PrincipalMetadata
- Summary information
- High level information
- Weblinks
- Statistical quality information
- Keywords
- Open Data
General description
Household projections for Wales produced by Knowledge and Analytical Services, Welsh Government.The methodology has been developed in conjunction with the Wales Sub-national Projections Working Group (WaSP). Members of WaSP include representatives with experience of demographic and housing data from Welsh local authorities, Data Cymru and the Welsh Government.
Data collection and calculation
Household projections provide an indication of the future number of households and their composition in Wales. The 2018-based local authority household projections are based on the 2018-based local authority population projections. The household projections are also based on data about ‘household formation’. Assumptions about the formations, or different types, of households are based on 2001 and 2011 Census data, produced by the ONS. Household projections are not a prediction or forecast of how many houses should be built in the future. Instead, they show how many additional households would form if the population of Wales continues to change as it did between 2014 and 2018, and keeps forming households as it did between 2001 and 2011.Five additional variant projections are also published alongside the principal projection. This includes a low population variant and a high population variant, as well as three variants based on alternative migration assumptions. These are a zero migration variant, a 10-year average migration variant and a 15-year average migration variant.
Further information can be found in the statistical release, link to which is in the weblink section.
Frequency of publication
No longer updatedData reference periods
2018 - 2043Revisions information
On Monday 18 May 2020, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) issued a notice on its website informing users that they had identified an error affecting the 2018-based national population projections. The error was caused by incorrect processing of cross-border flows between Wales and England, resulting in the projected mid-2028 population for Wales being approximately 65,000 too low, and that for England being approximately 65,000 too high.Having consulted with our expert group about the implications for our statistical products that were based on the ONS’ 2018-based national population projections, we decided to withdraw the 2018-based local authority population projections and household projections.
The ONS published corrected 2018-based national population projections for Wales on Thursday 11 June. The Welsh Government published corrected 2018-based local authority population projections on Tuesday 4 August. These local authority household projections are based on the corrected 2018-based local authority population projections. Further information about the corrections can be found in the 2018-based local authority household projections release, as well as an analysis of how these corrected projections compare with the previously published projections.
