Title

2018-based household projections for Wales, Welsh Government

Last update

August 2021 August 2021

Next update

No longer updated. This will be replaced by a future projection.

Publishing organisation

Welsh Government

Source 1

2018-based household projections for Wales, Welsh Government

Contact email

stats.popcensus@gov.wales

Designation

National Statistics

Lowest level of geographical disaggregation

Local authorities

Geographical coverage

Local authorities

Languages covered

English and Welsh

Data licensing

You may use and re-use this data free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government License - see http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence

General description

Household projections for Wales produced by Knowledge and Analytical Services, Welsh Government.

The methodology has been developed in conjunction with the Wales Sub-national Projections Working Group (WaSP). Members of WaSP include representatives with experience of demographic and housing data from Welsh local authorities, Data Cymru and the Welsh Government.

Data collection and calculation

Household projections provide an indication of the future number of households and their composition in Wales. The 2018-based local authority household projections are based on the 2018-based local authority population projections. The household projections are also based on data about ‘household formation’. Assumptions about the formations, or different types, of households are based on 2001 and 2011 Census data, produced by the ONS. Household projections are not a prediction or forecast of how many houses should be built in the future. Instead, they show how many additional households would form if the population of Wales continues to change as it did between 2014 and 2018, and keeps forming households as it did between 2001 and 2011.

Five additional variant projections are also published alongside the principal projection. This includes a low population variant and a high population variant, as well as three variants based on alternative migration assumptions. These are a zero migration variant, a 10-year average migration variant and a 15-year average migration variant.

Further information can be found in the statistical release, link to which is in the weblink section.

Frequency of publication

No longer updated

Data reference periods

2018 - 2043

Revisions information

On Monday 18 May 2020, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) issued a notice on its website informing users that they had identified an error affecting the 2018-based national population projections. The error was caused by incorrect processing of cross-border flows between Wales and England, resulting in the projected mid-2028 population for Wales being approximately 65,000 too low, and that for England being approximately 65,000 too high.

Having consulted with our expert group about the implications for our statistical products that were based on the ONS’ 2018-based national population projections, we decided to withdraw the 2018-based local authority population projections and household projections.

The ONS published corrected 2018-based national population projections for Wales on Thursday 11 June. The Welsh Government published corrected 2018-based local authority population projections on Tuesday 4 August. These local authority household projections are based on the corrected 2018-based local authority population projections. Further information about the corrections can be found in the 2018-based local authority household projections release, as well as an analysis of how these corrected projections compare with the previously published projections.

Statistical quality

See the statistical release in weblinks.

Keywords

Households, projections

Weblinks

https://gov.wales/subnational-household-projections

Name

HOUS0117