Household projections for selected local authority by year and variant

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Area

Area 1

Household type

Household type 1

Household type 2

Measure1

Variant

Year

Principal projection

Lower variant

Higher variant

Zero migration variant

Ten year average migration variant

2011

30,655

2012

30,752

30,722

30,803

2013

30,844

30,835

30,848

30,785

30,945

2014

30,943

30,919

30,955

30,855

31,094

2015

31,024

30,980

31,046

30,903

31,225

2016

31,107

31,042

31,140

30,954

31,358

2017

31,174

31,087

31,220

30,991

31,474

2018

31,243

31,134

31,304

31,040

31,595

2019

31,314

31,181

31,390

31,091

31,716

2020

31,370

31,213

31,462

31,127

31,823

2021

31,419

31,239

31,530

31,157

31,924

2022

31,468

31,264

31,600

31,189

32,024

2023

31,502

31,271

31,656

31,211

32,109

2024

31,527

31,269

31,708

31,229

32,187

2025

31,539

31,252

31,749

31,239

32,252

2026

31,541

31,222

31,783

31,240

32,307

2027

31,536

31,184

31,815

31,235

32,356

2028

31,527

31,139

31,845

31,221

32,401

2029

31,521

31,092

31,880

31,208

32,449

2030

31,500

31,027

31,905

31,181

32,484

2031

31,477

30,956

31,930

31,152

32,516

2032

31,447

30,872

31,954

31,118

32,541

2033

31,411

30,776

31,974

31,087

32,560

2034

31,371

30,671

31,996

31,056

32,576

2035

31,322

30,554

32,012

31,015

32,582

2036

31,269

30,428

32,028

30,973

32,584

Metadata

High level information
Undefined
Open Data

Data licensing

You may use and re-use this data free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government License - see http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence

Title

2011-based household projections for local authorities in Wales, 2011 to 2036

Author

Welsh Government

Notes 1

Last update: 27 February 2014
Was added to StatsWales: 27 February 2014

Next update: Will be replaced by a future projection
Will be added to StatsWales: Will be replaced by a future projection

Source: 2011-based household projections for Wales, Welsh Government
Contact: stats.housing@wales.gsi.gov.uk / ystadegau.tai@cymru.gsi.gov.uk

This dataset provides household projections for local authorities in Wales by household type from the base year of 2011, through the projection period to 2036. This is the third set of household projections published for the 22 local authorities in Wales, but the first set to take into account the results of the 2011 Census.

Unlike previous previous projections the figures at the local authority level are wholly consistent with the Wales data, whereas in previous years the Wales data has been calculated independently of the local authority estimates with minor differences.

Data are calculated using a methodology which uses the 2011 to 2036 population projections data published previously along with information on household structure from the 2011 Census. For more information on the methodology, please see the statistical release linked below.

The methodology was developed in conjunction with the Wales Sub-national Household Projections (WASHP) Working Group. Members of WASHP include representatives with experience of demographic and housing data from Welsh local authorities, the Local Government Data Unit and the Welsh Government.

Projections only indicate what may happen should the recent trends continue. Projections done in this way do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies on future population levels, distribution and change. They are merely an indication of what would happen if certain assumptions were realised.

Four migration variants are also calculated and included here, covering different migration scenarios, ranging from a zero migration estimate, to a low estimate, to a high estimate. A further estimate based on projecting forward the average migration patterns over the last ten years is also available.

Data are rounded independently to the nearest whole number and may not add exactly.

Note that the projections become increasingly uncertain the further we try to look into the future.

For further information please see the local authority / national park household projections statistical release: http://wales.gov.uk/statistics-and-research/household-projections/?lang=en.

Keywords

Households; projections

Name

Hous0113