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Data Provider: Welsh Government Properties at Risk of Flooding 2120
None
Flooding Type[Filtered]
Year[Filtered]
[Collapse]Property Type[Filtered]
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Property Type 1[Filter]
Measure1
Defence Type[Filter]
[Collapse]Risk[Filter]
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Risk 1
[Collapse]Area[Filter]
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-
[Collapse]Area 1
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Area 2
[Collapse]Defended[Collapse]Undefended
[Collapse]TotalClick here to sortTotal[Collapse]TotalClick here to sortTotal
Click here to sortLowClick here to sortMediumClick here to sortHighClick here to sortLowClick here to sortMediumClick here to sortHigh
[Collapse]Wales107,87929,03455,053191,966107,87929,03455,053191,966
Wales[Collapse]North Wales24,7717,9829,89542,64824,7717,9829,89542,648
North WalesIsle of Anglesey2,1436825963,4212,1436825963,421
Gwynedd5,8481,7882,78710,4235,8481,7882,78710,423
Conwy4,4471,3371,4717,2554,4471,3371,4717,255
Denbighshire3,6701,0901,1995,9593,6701,0901,1995,959
Flintshire5,2591,8492,4869,5945,2591,8492,4869,594
Wrexham3,4041,2361,3565,9963,4041,2361,3565,996
[Collapse]Mid & South West Wales28,3627,94316,57752,88228,3627,94316,57752,882
Mid & South West WalesPowys5,3851,7663,64510,7965,3851,7663,64510,796
Ceredigion2,0015681,3573,9262,0015681,3573,926
Pembrokeshire1,9175361,0703,5231,9175361,0703,523
Carmarthenshire6,0221,5933,77111,3866,0221,5933,77111,386
Swansea7,3471,9533,44512,7457,3471,9533,44512,745
Neath Port Talbot5,6901,5273,28910,5065,6901,5273,28910,506
[Collapse]South East Wales54,74613,10928,58196,43654,74613,10928,58196,436
South East WalesBridgend4,7351,3523,1089,1954,7351,3523,1089,195
Vale of Glamorgan3,7551,0311,5926,3783,7551,0311,5926,378
Cardiff11,1201,68296013,76211,1201,68296013,762
Rhondda Cynon Taf11,4683,70811,28126,45711,4683,70811,28126,457
Merthyr Tydfil2,4897022,4625,6532,4897022,4625,653
Caerphilly5,9451,5863,16910,7005,9451,5863,16910,700
Blaenau Gwent3,3489082,9827,2383,3489082,9827,238
Torfaen2,8606411,4074,9082,8606411,4074,908
Monmouthshire2,0774444682,9892,0774444682,989
Newport6,9491,0551,1529,1566,9491,0551,1529,156

Metadata

Title

Properties at Risk of Flooding in Wales

Last update

August 2024 August 2024

Next update

July 2026

Publishing organisation

Welsh Government

Source 1

National Flood Risk Assessment data, Natural Resources Wales

Contact email

stats.environment@gov.wales

Designation

None

Lowest level of geographical disaggregation

Local authorities

Geographical coverage

Wales

Languages covered

English and Welsh

Data licensing

You may use and re-use this data free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government License - see http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence

General description

The Flood Risk Assessment Wales (FRAW) modelling, together with the latest National Receptor Database 2023 (NRD 2023) are used to determine the number of properties (residential and non-residential) at risk of flooding from Rivers, the Sea and Surface Water and Small Watercourses in Wales. The information is for Present Day risk (2024) and Climate Change risk (2120) and includes both the presence and removal of flood defences within the modelling (defended and undefended scenarios).

Data collection and calculation

The chance of flooding is set out in three risk categories:

High Risk; Greater than or equal to 1 in 30 (3.3%) chance in any given year
Medium Risk; Less than 1 in 30 (3.3%) but greater than or equal to 1 in 100 (1%) chance in any given year for rivers and surface water flooding and less than 1 in 30 (3.3 per cent) but greater than or equal to 1 in 200 (0.5 per cent) for the sea.
Low Risk; Less than 1 in 100 (1%) for rivers and surface water flooding and 1 in 200 (0.5 per cent) for the sea but greater than or equal to 1 in 1,000 (0.1%) chance in any given year.

FRAW typically includes flooding from rivers with a catchment size greater than 3 square kilometres, and flooding from the sea (both along the open coast and tidal estuaries). Smaller watercourses with a catchment size smaller than 3 square kilometres are represented in the FRAW Surface Water data and maps.

The assessment takes into account the location and standard of protection afforded by flood defences and adjusts the risk categorisation accordingly from an initial, ‘undefended’ scenario.

Climate change uplift values are based on the guidance available at the time of the original FRAW project which was completed in 2019. The uplift values are very similar or identical to current Welsh Government guidance, using a “Central Estimate”. Typical values for Sea level rise are approximately 1.1m across Wales, a 20% to 30% increase in River flows based on River Basin Catchments and a 20% increase to rainfall for the Surface Water and Small Watercourse mapping.

For the Climate Change Defended scenario, an assumption has been made that the existing standard of protection of the flood defences keeps pace with climate change.

Data reference periods

2024 onwards

Rounding applied

None.

Statistical quality

FRAW typically includes flooding from rivers with a catchment size greater than 3 square kilometres, and flooding from the sea (both along the open coast and tidal estuaries). Smaller watercourses with a catchment size smaller than 3 square kilometres are represented in the FRAW Surface Water data and maps.

The assessment takes into account the location and standard of protection afforded by flood defences and adjusts the risk categorisation accordingly from an initial, ‘undefended’ scenario.

Some properties in Wales may be affected by more than one source of flooding, therefore when counting properties at risk, you need to be careful the same property isn’t counted more than once. For example, if a property is affected by all three sources of flooding, when reporting by flood sources it will be counted as one property for rivers, one for the sea and one for surface water & small watercourse. However, if you are counting the total number of properties in Wales at flood risk, using the sum of all three sources, the same property could be counted 3 times.
The property counts provided are a snapshot in time based on 2024 datasets. They are subject to change year on year, as data and methodology improves over time. This may cause counts to increase or decrease between individual releases. When we count buildings or properties, this may include multiple buildings at the same address.

Keywords

Flooding, Climate Change,